661
FXUS62 KMLB 011420
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Mostly dry conditions today, as high pressure moves offshore of
the eastern US seaboard and into the western Atlantic. Very dry
air above 850mb traps a layer of moisture below it that will
continue to support marine stratocu development into tonight.
A few sprinkles or showers may develop out of this layer, mainly
this evening into tonight. PoPs around 20% or less.

The pressure gradient as the ridge shifts offshore will lead to
breezy to windy onshore winds today, with gusts of 20 to 25mph,
especially along the coast. Paired with min RH values of 35-45%
and dry fuels, this will make for sensitive fire weather
conditions. Onshore flow will at least provide more seasonable
temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Breezy East winds combined with dry conditions will produce a
  fire weather sensitive day today.

- Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions Today.

Today...High pressure will slide E-SE and off the Carolina coast
late in the day. Clockwise circulation around this high pressure
and its assocd pressure gradient will produce breezy East winds,
15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph across EC FL. Current temps
holding in the upper 70s along the coast due to the breezy onshore
flow but max temps will only reach the mid 80s there, a typically
small diurnal range in such flow regimes. Over the interior, max
temps will reach the upper 80s/near 90, very seasonable for the
first day of June and a respite from the recent heat.

There is some moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion around
850 mb. This will promote scattered marine stratocu pushing
onshore that pancakes beneath the base of the inversion. Brief periods
of mostly cloudy skies are possible. And cannot rule out a few
sprinkles falling out of these clouds but measurable precip is not
expected.

Sun...The pressure gradient eases as the high center moves seaward
away from the area so not quite as breezy but east flow will
continue which will push the sea breeze steadily inland. The dry
airmass will also shift eastward and allow some moistening from
the west. As a result, rain chances have increased some with the
best chance for scattered showers and storms across southern
sections as early as Sun morning along the Treasure coast.
Sufficient moisture now looks to exist over the interior in the
aftn to generate 30-40% coverage of showers/storms. This is about
20% below NBM PoPs which are typically too high. Max temps remain
seasonable, just a degree or so warmer than today.

Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle
southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu-Fri. Moisture looks
fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous.
Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming
trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and
beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late
week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy easterly winds through the
period, with gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, especially along
the coast. Winds will diminish tonight. A few showers or storms
may be possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon into
tonight, though confidence is too low to include a mention in the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

High pressure will slide east-southeast and offshore the Carolina
coast this afternoon, then seaward over the western Atlantic. A
trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into
early next week. Fresh East winds around this high pressure will
produce poor to hazardous conditions today then conditions will
gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge
axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure
gradient which will still support 10-15 kts.

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Brevard waters
until 10 am and the Treasure coast waters (south of Sebastian
Inlet) until 10 pm this evening. Seas will peak at 6-7 ft in the
Gulf Stream south of the Cape today. Seas will fall below 5 ft
offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  71  86  70 /   0   0  30  20
MCO  88  70  89  71 /   0   0  40  20
MLB  85  73  86  73 /  10  20  50  30
VRB  86  72  86  72 /  10  20  50  40
LEE  89  70  91  72 /  10  10  30  10
SFB  88  70  89  71 /   0   0  30  10
ORL  88  71  90  72 /   0   0  40  10
FPR  86  71  86  71 /  10  30  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Leahy