577
FXUS62 KMLB 010601
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
Northeast winds at 4-8kts inland and 10-12kts along the coast are
forecast to increase after 12Z-15Z with gusts to 20-26kts this
afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish into the late evening and
overnight hours from the east. SCT clouds (potentially BKN mainly
near the coast) at around 040-050kft are forecast this afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE... (Through Saturday)
Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- Most areas to remain dry through Saturday. A few sprinkles
  possible overnight, with isolated showers along the Treasure
  Coast.

- Deteriorating boating conditions through tomorrow.

- Somewhat better chances for showers and storms from Sunday into
  early next week.

Another quiet evening of weather across East Central Florida. RAP
analysis indicates an initial surge of drier air is sweeping
southward into the area, leading to more comfortable humidity for
the end of May. However, a bit of moisture remains trapped near
the top of the PBL, which could be enough to spark a few onshore-
moving sprinkles overnight near the coast. Additional modified
continental air reaches the district Saturday, leading to a
mainly dry forecast. The exception to this will be the southern
Treasure Coast where PW values remain just high enough to support
20% shower/storm chances in the afternoon.

Sprawling high pressure continues to pass by to our north. As it
does, expect continued breezy conditions near the coast
overnight, holding temperatures in the mid/upper 70s along and
east of US-1. Elsewhere, upper 60s/low 70s will be commonplace.
East breezes will likely gust from 15-25 mph again on Saturday.
Highs will warm into the mid 80s beachside to near 90 from the
Kissimmee Basin into Lake County.

You will find patchy smoke in the digital forecast south of
Holopaw (Osceola Co) and near Palm City (Martin Co) due to nearby
wildfires. This may cause locally reduced visibility; slow down
and increase following distance if you encounter smoke while
driving. Breezy and dry conditions could cause any active fires to
quickly spread on Saturday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina
coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis
extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer
Easterly and remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the
coast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient
eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to
the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will
remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern
sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving
onshore the Treasure coast. Models are trying to hint at a little
moisture even pushing further northwestward on Sun, but remain
skeptical. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to
upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore
flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast,
keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next
week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm
chances slowly increasing 20-40 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue-
Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the
mid 90s interior Wed-Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Overnight...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all local
waters from Brevard Co southward as winds are freshening due to a
tightening pressure gradient. ENE winds 15-20 KT with seas
building to 3-5 FT nearshore, 4-6 FT offshore. Slight chance for a
shower.

Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis
extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The
pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters
and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv
(SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will
end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually
improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across
north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still
support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the
Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon
and 2-3 ft Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue
into the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and
lightning storm chances will remain below normal through the
weekend. The best chance for convection will be along the Treasure
Coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections
each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast.
The increase in wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent
dispersion values and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will
produce very sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat
across all of east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may
spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should gradually
increase in coverage next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  71  86  70 /   0   0  30  20
MCO  88  70  89  71 /   0   0  40  20
MLB  85  73  86  73 /  10  20  50  30
VRB  86  72  86  72 /  10  20  50  40
LEE  89  70  91  72 /  10  10  30  10
SFB  88  70  89  71 /   0   0  30  10
ORL  88  71  90  72 /   0   0  40  10
FPR  86  71  86  71 /  10  30  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Fehling