Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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748 FXUS62 KMLB 281122 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 722 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Light and variable winds becoming westerly today around 10 knots after 15Z. Increasing rain and storm chances today as a weak front approaches and the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Added TEMPOs in with this package to account for best chances for TSRA, with at least MVFR VIS and CIGs expected. Further amendments may be needed to timing as the picture becomes clearer. Activity will diminish across the interior terminals as showers and storms move offshore. Continued VCSH after 21Z along the coast until about 03Z. Winds becoming light and variable at all terminals overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 - Heat continues with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices 100 to 105 into mid-week - Rain and storm chances increase from mid morning into the afternoon today - Daytime rain showers and thunderstorms persist into this weekend Today-Tonight...A weak cool front will enter north Florida today, before stalling north of east central Florida into tonight. This feature will aid a passing mid-level shortwave in developing scattered showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon, with the east coast sea breeze acting to enhance convection near the coast. PWATs today are forecast between 1.75-2", providing ample moisture for showers and storms to develop. A limiting factor, however, will be drier air aloft. While dry air could hinder updraft growth today, any storms that do develop will be capable of strong wind gusts to around 50mph, thanks to DCAPE values 1100-1400J/kg. The hail threat will be limited by 500mb temperatures only around -7C. CAMs suggest showers and storms pushing southward from north Florida this morning into early afternoon. Then, meeting the east coast sea breeze from around the Cape southward later this afternoon into this evening. PoPs today around 30-40% along and north of I-4 and 50% to the south. Westerly winds will prevail today, helping to keep the late- developing east coast sea breeze pinned to the coastal counties this afternoon. Thus, little relief is forecast from high temperatures forecast once again in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices 100-105. A few records could be threatened today, mainly at Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Fort Pierce. See the Climate section for more details. Convection is forecast to linger along the coast this evening, mainly along the Space and Treasure Coasts, before pushing offshore into tonight. Once convection moves into the Atlantic waters, dry conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. Wednesday-Friday...The weak front is forecast to push southward into the local area Wednesday, then linger through the remainder of the work week. Energy pulses aloft will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances. However, PoPs through the period will remain around 40% or less, as drier air provides a limiting factor for convection. In addition, developing onshore flow will aid the east coast sea breeze, with the daily collision occurring over central Florida Wednesday, then west central Florida late week. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 90s persisting. Will start to see some relief late week, though, thanks to onshore flow. By Thursday and Friday, coastal areas look to remain in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Saturday-Monday...High pressure building into the western Atlantic will finally shunt the lingering cool front into southern Florida this weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible. However, drier air will continue to be a limiting factor. Also, a tightening pressure gradient as the ridge develops will increase onshore flow, preventing inland progression of the west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision near the CWA. Temperatures will become more seasonal, reaching the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore overnight. Seas 1-3ft. Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to 15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 72 91 70 / 30 10 10 0 MCO 94 74 96 71 / 40 10 10 0 MLB 94 74 91 73 / 50 30 20 10 VRB 95 72 92 72 / 50 40 20 10 LEE 92 73 95 71 / 30 0 10 0 SFB 95 73 96 71 / 30 10 10 0 ORL 94 74 97 73 / 40 10 10 0 FPR 95 72 92 71 / 50 40 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Tollefsen