456
FXUS62 KMLB 210531
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
131 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions continue. Northerly winds 5-10 kts remainder of
the night. Winds veer NE/ENE on Tue with speeds increasing to
10-15 kts with higher afternoon gusts. The ECSB will push inland
during the afternoon and into WCFL in the evening. ISOLD to WDLY
SCT showers and perhaps an ISOLD lightning storm is forecast but
confidence low here. This activity will be associated with the
inland moving sea breeze. Will use "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO
groups as necessary. Diminished convective chances past early
evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida through
the remainder of tonight. Showers and isolated storms are forecast
to continue developing across the local Atlantic waters overnight,
with guidance keeping the peninsula mostly dry. Northeast winds
will remain around 5 to 10 mph, which should keep any potential
for fog development low. Skies will remain clear overnight, with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will shift south of the Treasure
Coast waters this evening, with N/NE winds up to 15-20 knots north
of Sebastian Inlet, decreasing to 10-15 knots to the south. Small
craft should exercise caution over the Volusia/Brevard County waters
for these elevated winds and seas building up to 6 feet offshore.
N/NE winds will diminish overnight to 5-10 knots late tonight,
but poor boating conditions will continue offshore of Volusia and
Brevard counties as seas up to 6 feet linger.

Isolated stronger storms will have the potential to push offshore,
mainly near to south of Fort Pierce Inlet late this afternoon and
into this evening, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
and possibly some hail.

Tuesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Northeast winds into
Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts.
Winds weaken further into Friday to around 5-10 kts and veer to the
south, with winds becoming E/SE each afternoon and evening from late
week and into the holiday weekend as the sea breeze develops each
day and moves inland. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday
gradually subside, and seas become 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening, and
fall even further to around 2 ft into Friday and Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are still
possible across the coastal waters on Tuesday, with coverage
following a downward trend each following day through mid to late
week. Potential for showers and storms then increase into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  71  85  69 /  40   0  10   0
MCO  87  71  90  69 /  40  10  10   0
MLB  85  73  85  72 /  40  10  10   0
VRB  87  71  87  70 /  30  20  10   0
LEE  88  71  91  71 /  30  10  10   0
SFB  87  70  90  69 /  50  10  10   0
ORL  87  71  90  70 /  50  10  10   0
FPR  87  70  87  69 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock