Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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365 FXUS62 KMLB 300844 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 444 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Key Messages: - Hot temperatures continue Today, with mid 90s over the interior. - Onshore breezes will lessen heat impacts this weekend, and drier air will once again limit rain potential. Today-Fri...Patchy ground fog this morning south and east of Orlando will quickly dissipate after sunrise though until then localized visibilities may be reduced below one half mile at times. Such patchiness of the fog can make driving more hazardous especially at high speeds. A weak frontal boundary lingers in the vicinity of the local area through Friday. Continued dry air will limit shower and thunderstorm chances, especially across northern sections today. The best chance for aftn showers and storms will be over Osceola and Okeechobee counties (30%). Some debris rain may reach coastal counties toward evening from Brevard southward. Max temps will again reach the Mid 90s inland and L90s along the coast, with a slow inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. On Fri, building high pressure down the mid Atlc into the SE coastal states will produce a breezier NE wind flow and push a diffuse east coast sea breeze quickly inland with the collision occurring on the western half of the peninsula. An earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally provide a small amount of relief from the heat with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast and low to mid 90s inland. Rain chances look too low to mention along the coast and only up to a 30 PoP over the far interior (Kissimmee River and Lake county). Sat-Wed...High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and considerable dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have removed mentionable rain chances for the weekend keeping a silent 10 PoP. The East coast sea breeze will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing 15-20 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in the mid to upper 80s coast and near 90/lower 90s inland. The dry airmass will gradually modify next week with rain chances slowly increasing 20 percent Mon and Tue and 30 percent Wed. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb but not getting as hot as it has been. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Today...Only a slight chance mention for PoPs in the afternoon are forecast for the Treasure Coast waters. Most of the aftn storms will remain over the peninsula. Light W to NW flow this morning will turn NE-E 10-12 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft. Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Mainly dry conditions. Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Sat and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Min RH values are forecast to reach between 25-30% north of I-4 corridor, especially Lake county while rising to 40-50% along the coast. Onshore (northeast to east) winds are forecast to increase 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion. There will be a small threat for afternoon storms mainly in Osceola and Okeechobee counties. Min RH values will hold around 35% percent Friday over the interior and this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain very low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Mostly VFR and dry conditions are forecast. TEMPO groups for patchy ground fog have been added this morning at FPR/VRB. Light and variable winds will increase into the afternoon hours from the ENE at 10-12kts. VCTS/TEMPO groups have been kept out of the TAFs with the greatest chance for showers/storms this afternoon expected across the interior to the WSW of the Treasure Coast terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 71 88 71 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 94 71 93 71 / 20 0 20 10 MLB 90 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 91 72 89 72 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 94 72 93 71 / 10 0 30 10 SFB 94 71 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 ORL 95 73 93 71 / 10 0 20 10 FPR 91 71 89 71 / 20 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Fehling