Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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485 FXUS62 KMLB 211950 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Key Messages... -Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms still possible over the interior through sunset. -Temperatures increasing through mid to late week, with drier than normal conditions expected. -Hotter and drier than normal conditions forecast to persist into the holiday weekend. Currently-Tonight...Shower development has remained fairly limited along the east coast sea breeze, but the potential for isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will continue for inland areas through sunset as the east coast sea breeze moves westward. A few onshore moving showers may also be possible late tonight, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, most areas look to remain dry into tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy, and lows falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Despite a lighter onshore flow, model guidance not showing much in the way of fog development tonight, so have kept mention out of the forecast. However, with lighter winds overnight still can`t rule out some patchy ground fog in spots late tonight and toward daybreak Wednesday. Settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush fires may also cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near large "Sandy Drain" wildfire, that is currently 95% contained, in southern Volusia County near Farmton. Wednesday...Ridge aloft builds in from the west and drier airmass building in from the east will help suppress any convective development with the sea breeze into tomorrow. Only low end rain chances, around 20 percent, exist across Okeechobee County and the southern Treasure Coast for the potential for a stray shower or storm into the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb into mid week, with highs tomorrow ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s and low 90s over the interior. Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Anomalous ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday as 500mb heights reach the 90th climatological percentile. Mid level ridging continues to remain in place through the weekend, flattening some as a shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday, increasing moisture and precip chances slightly into the weekend. However, forecast has been trending drier with PoPs 20-30 percent on Saturday, around 20 percent on Sunday, and then only 20 percent across the interior on Monday. Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Tonight...Isolated showers and storms still possible over the coastal waters into tonight. Winds will be out of the east to northeast around 7-12 knots, with seas 3-5 feet this evening falling to 2-4 feet overnight. Wednesday-Saturday...(Previous Discussion) Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast through late week, promoting favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10 kts veer south into Friday. Mostly dry with the best chance for a shower or storm limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to scattered showers then return across all waters on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Mid to Late Week...(Previous Discussion) Building high pressure will promote sensitive fire conditions across the interior Thursday into late week. Minimum relative humidity values fall near critical thresholds across the northwest interior Thursday, ranging 35-40 percent. Values are then forecast to remain in the low to mid 40s across interior counties through at least late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers have developed along the inland-moving east coast sea breeze early this afternoon. Low confidence in an increase in coverage or any lightning, so have maintained a VCSH mention for terminals from MCO/ISM/TIX northward. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Any convective activity will diminish into this evening. Easterly flow through the period will increase to around 10-15kts behind the sea breeze, with lighter winds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 85 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 71 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 73 85 72 87 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 71 88 70 88 / 20 10 0 10 LEE 71 90 72 93 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 70 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 71 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 70 87 69 88 / 20 20 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Leahy