123
FXUS62 KMLB 201950
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Key Messages...

-Isolated stronger storms still possible late this afternoon into
 early evening near Lake Okeechobee and the southern Treasure
 Coast.

-Hotter and drier than normal conditions forecast from mid to
 late week.

-Scattered afternoon showers and storms returning into the
 holiday weekend.

Currently-Tonight...Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms
developing across Okeechobee, St. Lucie and Martin counties late
afternoon through early evening. Slow southward moving front and
sea/lake breeze boundaries in this region may still spark
developing convection across this area. Main threats will
continue to be strong to locally damaging winds of 40-60 mph, and
hail up to an inch in diameter. However, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall will also occur with any stronger
convection. Additional isolated showers and storms still possible
farther north through sunset, but rain chances remain lower
around 20-30 percent.

Any showers or storms will diminish through the evening, and then
a developing low level onshore flow may allow for a few onshore
moving showers along the coast, mainly north of Vero Beach
overnight. Breezy N/NE winds will continue behind the front
through sunset and then winds diminish into tonight. Overnight
lows will fall to the mid 60s to low 70s across the area, with
skies mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Tuesday...Mid-level trough over the western Atlantic remains
extended across the state, with weakened sfc front south of the
central FL, and attached to weak low east of the area. PW values
increase slightly up to 1.4-1.5" in the low level northeast flow,
which will still be sufficient for isolated to scattered shower
and storm development tomorrow. Rain chances will initially be
limited along the coast in the morning, transitioning inland with
the east coast sea breeze through late morning into the afternoon.
Highs will still be seasonably warm, ranging from the low to mid
80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s across the interior. Rain
chances diminish into Tuesday night, with lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Ridging over the
western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A
short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to
flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging
aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the
start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an
east coast sea breeze regime mid to late week, with only an
isolated mention of convection each afternoon, mainly near the
Lake Okeechobee region. Surface flow begins to veer southerly
Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered
precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s
(coast) to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a gradual warming
trend each day into late week. High temperatures then in the low
to mid 90s across the entire area Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will shift south of the Treasure
Coast waters this evening, with N/NE winds up to 15-20 knots north
of Sebastian Inlet, decreasing to 10-15 knots to the south. Small
craft should exercise caution over the Volusia/Brevard County waters
for these elevated winds and seas building up to 6 feet offshore.
N/NE winds will diminish overnight to 5-10 knots late tonight,
but poor boating conditions will continue offshore of Volusia and
Brevard counties as seas up to 6 feet linger.

Isolated stronger storms will have the potential to push offshore,
mainly near to south of Fort Pierce Inlet late this afternoon and
into this evening, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
and possibly some hail.

Tuesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Northeast winds into
Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts.
Winds weaken further into Friday to around 5-10 kts and veer to the
south, with winds becoming E/SE each afternoon and evening from late
week and into the holiday weekend as the sea breeze develops each
day and moves inland. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday
gradually subside, and seas become 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening, and
fall even further to around 2 ft into Friday and Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are still
possible across the coastal waters on Tuesday, with coverage
following a downward trend each following day through mid to late
week. Potential for showers and storms then increase into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers present on KMLB radar
early this afternoon have led to VCSH inclusion for areas from MCO
northward into mid-afternoon. Otherwise, areas are expected to
remain mostly dry today. To the south, higher confidence in
showers and storms this afternoon, with VCTS included for the
Treasure Coast, as the sea breeze moves inland. A TEMPO group has
been included for SUA, which has the highest chance for seeing any
reductions due to convection. Any convection is expected to
diminish into late evening.

Winds have already veered northeasterly behind the sea breeze for
coastal terminals from around TIX southward. The sea breeze is
forecast to move inland into this afternoon, with gusts up to
25kts possible. Winds will diminish after sunset and back northerly
once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  70  85 /  10  30   0  10
MCO  70  87  70  90 /  10  40   0  10
MLB  72  85  72  86 /  20  30  10  10
VRB  70  87  71  88 /  20  30  10  20
LEE  68  88  71  91 /  10  40   0  10
SFB  68  87  70  90 /  10  40   0  10
ORL  71  88  71  90 /  10  40   0  10
FPR  69  87  70  87 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy