Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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993 FXUS62 KMLB 030228 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1028 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Made some adjustments to PoPs, generally bringing them down across the board as guidance has backed off once again. A shower or two from the western side of the peninsula could wander back this way over the next hour or two, but so far the opposing easterly low level and westerly mid-upper level flow has kept convection mostly stationary well to our west, so chances are pretty low. Best chance or showers and maybe even a storm overnight will be mainly along the Treasure Coast between midnight and early Monday morning. Onshore moving sprinkles and light showers remain possible along the whole coast through morning, but odds favor from the Cape south. Rest of the forecast remains on track for a quiet night. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Rest of Today-Monday...Scattered showers have developed along the sea breeze as it moves inland across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County early this afternoon. This activity is forecast to continue inland, with a collision with the west coast sea breeze occurring over the western half of the peninsula. CAMs continue to show showers and storms then drifting back towards the coast Treasure and southern Space Coasts along westerly mid to upper level flow late this evening into the overnight hours. The highest PoPs are forecast in this area (30-50%) with areas to the north (20-30%) having a lower chance for activity. The main threats with any storms will be gusty winds and lightning strikes. Light onshore flow overnight will keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s early Monday morning. As the ridge drifts farther into the western Atlantic, the ridge axis will settle in over north Florida, maintaining onshore flow through the day. Winds will continue to diminish, but the east coast sea breeze developing in the late morning and early afternoon will enhance winds to around 10-15mph, with gusts to around 20mph along the coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue, with PoPs 30-40%. The highest chances look to be across the interior in the afternoon, which will be closest to the sea breeze collision over the western half of the peninsula. The warming trend continues, with highs forecast to reach the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Increased moisture will allow for heat indices to creep into the upper 90s inland from the Treasure Coast and in Okeechobee County. Tuesday-Saturday...(modified previous) The ridge axis drifts from north Florida to south FL through the period, as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the deep South, supported by a deep upper cut- off low rotating into the Great Lakes. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-50% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with highs reaching mid 90s Tue thru the end of the week. These low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. This will also shift the daily sea breeze collisions to our (east) side of the peninsula. Provided there is sufficient moisture, scattered sea breeze storms may result but residual mid level dry air may produce strong storms, accompanied by gusty winds and of course lightning strikes which could spark add`l brush fires. This is the typical story as we transition to the wet season. Heat Risk will become a concern once again late this week with peak heat indices reaching 100-105 Thu-Fri and 102-107 on Sat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 755 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period as easterly flow keeps the bulk of TSRA/SHRA on the western half of the peninsula. Models have also backed off pushing anything noteworthy back east, so went ahead and pulled VCTS/VCSH prior to 05Z from KMLB-KSUA, but continue a token mention at KMCO/KISM/KLEE. Still decent confidence for nocturnal TSRA/SHRA INVOF KVRB-KSUA, so kept VCTS starting 05Z and even extended until 12Z. Low model agreement continues for TSRA/SHRA Monday, but chances are good enough for the usual 18Z VCSH/VCTS at all ECFL terminals. Easterly winds becoming light overnight pick back up to 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Monday after 15Z at coastal terminals and 18Z inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will drift farther into the western Atlantic through mid-week, with the ridge axis forecast to extend towards the Florida peninsula through late week. A weak cool front is forecast to approach the area Friday into Friday night, though this feature will likely stall before making it to east central Florida. Thus, boating conditions will continue to improve into Monday, with onshore flow remaining under 15kts through Wednesday. By Thursday, winds veer southeasterly, as the ridge axis moves southward, with winds then veering southerly on Friday. Seas 3-4ft tonight becoming 2-3ft through the remainder of the period. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast, with some activity pushing offshore in the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure influence will persist into mid week, maintaining sensitive fire weather conditions. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms this afternoon, mainly south and west of Orlando. Onshore flow will aid the east coast sea breeze, keeping the collision on the west side of the peninsula. Breezy conditions behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to around 20 to 25mph behind it. Sensitive fire weather conditions persist due to min RH between 40-45% over the interior. Very good to excellent dispersion expected. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through mid week, as a high temperatures gradually warm each day, becoming near 90 along the coast and lower 90s inland. Onshore flow will continue, enhanced each day by the sea breeze. Min RH values remaining around 45% over the interior, with higher min RH towards the coast. Good to very good dispersion each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 87 71 88 / 10 20 10 30 MCO 71 90 71 92 / 10 30 10 40 MLB 73 87 73 88 / 20 20 20 40 VRB 71 88 71 89 / 30 20 20 40 LEE 72 91 71 93 / 10 30 20 40 SFB 71 90 71 92 / 10 20 10 40 ORL 72 91 72 92 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 71 87 70 88 / 30 30 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Haley