Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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206 FXUS62 KMLB 281416 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1016 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Remnant isolated showers from earlier storms across the Nature Coast were dissipating on approach to Lake and Volusia counties. This activity is along the leading edge of an outflow boundary, stretching from Hernando to Marion counties, and is also moving in sync with some higher GOES-derived PW values (1.7"+). Quick- hitting showers may develop along the outflow as it pushes deeper into central FL this morning. A band of increasing moisture convergence is expected as we head into the afternoon, generally south of I-4 toward Orlando/Cape Canaveral and south toward Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. For these areas, PoP is in the 35-50 percent range with isolated to scattered storms expected. Mid level dry air, a potential lingering surface inversion, and modest mid level lapse rates will all work against robust convective development. The QPF remains highest generally south of Titusville toward the Treasure Coast, where the east coast breeze may locally enhance storms late in the afternoon and early this evening. The most organized storms today will be capable of wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours. Hot temperatures remain in the forecast with mid to upper 90s expected, with the hottest locations across the southern half of the forecast area. A couple of records could be approached, especially on the Treasure Coast, depending on the development and arrival time of the east coast breeze or convection. Practice heat safety if outdoors by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade and air conditioned spaces. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore overnight. Seas 1-3ft. Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to 15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Today (modified previous)...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist today, as min RH values fall to 35-45% for much of the area today. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances (up to 30-50%), mainly during the afternoon hours, will do little to provide relief from hot high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Westerly winds prevail today, though will see winds back east to southeast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops but remains pinned near the coast. High mixing heights will lead to another day of excellent dispersion, with control issues likely. Also, lightning strikes could lead to additional fire starts. Wednesday-Friday...Drier air moving into the area mid to late week will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions as min RH values dip to as low as 25-30% over the interior, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal areas will remain between 35-50%. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Fortunately, wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15mph, as northerly winds early Wednesday veer onshore and remain that way through the period. Dispersion will remain excellent, so control issues will likely persist. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Light and variable winds becoming westerly today around 10 knots after 15Z. Increasing rain and storm chances today as a weak front approaches and the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Added TEMPOs in with this package to account for best chances for TSRA, with at least MVFR VIS and CIGs expected. Further amendments may be needed to timing as the picture becomes clearer. Activity will diminish across the interior terminals as showers and storms move offshore. Continued VCSH after 21Z along the coast until about 03Z. Winds becoming light and variable at all terminals overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Hot afternoon temperatures today will once again threaten a few records, mainly along the coast from Melbourne southward. The current record high temperatures around the area are as follows: Record High Year Daytona Beach 99 2000 Leesburg 98 2000 Sanford 100 1953 Orlando 99 2000 Melbourne 97 2000 Vero Beach 96 1967 Fort Pierce 95 2000 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 72 91 70 / 30 10 10 0 MCO 94 74 96 71 / 40 10 10 0 MLB 94 74 91 73 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 95 72 92 72 / 50 30 20 10 LEE 92 73 95 71 / 40 0 10 0 SFB 95 73 96 71 / 40 10 10 0 ORL 94 74 97 73 / 40 10 10 0 FPR 95 72 92 71 / 50 30 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Tollefsen