Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
124 FXUS62 KMLB 271759 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is an outside chance of a SHRA/TSRA INVOF KVRB-KSUA but chances are too low for VC mention. Most terminals remain in Wrly winds around 10 kts due to a favored WCSB, but along the coast the ECSB has finally started to push inland near KVRB-KSUA, and should follow suit at KMLB-KDAB by around 20Z, turning winds S-SE. ECFL terminals remain dry through late Tuesday morning, then SHRA/TSRA chances increase as a weakening frontal boundary sags into or just short of the area. Terminals along and north of I-4 pick up VCTS at 15Z-17Z, and will need to be added to the remaining ECFL terminals after 18Z in the next package. TEMPOs for TSRA VIS reductions will likely be needed, but at the moment cloud bases look high enough to not warrant CIG reductions. Predominantly Wrly winds 5-10 kts Tuesday between large scale flow and storm outflow, but should seem some ECSB develop reaching the coastal terminals. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The 10z XMR sounding indicates a slight moistening above 500mb with relatively similar conditions through the rest of the column, when compared to yesterday`s 23z sounding. A near-surface inversion will be slow to erode through the day, if it even does so. Model guidance suggests a persistent inversion, along with a weak wind profile over central Florida, will preclude much in the way of convection this afternoon. If any showers or isolated storms do develop, locations with the best chance for activity will be along the east coast sea breeze, generally from near Melbourne southward to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. However, very low confidence exists in any measurable rain today. Hot temperatures will remain the headline story through the afternoon, with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps approaching the century mark across southern interior locations. Peak heat index values are still expected to top out around 100 to 105, so make sure to take breaks in the shade or air conditioning and stay well-hydrated. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will be present across the local Atlantic waters today with seas between 1 to 3 feet and south-southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. The east coast sea breeze will develop, causing wind to become south-southeast later this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, with increasing rain and storm chances expected into the overnight hours. Any storms that develop tonight may be capable of producing occasional to frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Tuesday-Friday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with seas generally between1 to 3 feet and winds remaining below 15 knots. Wind direction will vary through the period, with winds becoming onshore each afternoon due to the development of the sea breeze. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast. Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, rain and storm chances will remain in the forecast across the local waters. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Locally higher seas may also be possible near stronger storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the interior will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions today. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across the area. The heat continues, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Fire conditions will improve slightly on Tuesday due to increasing moisture, but storms and associated lightning strikes could lead to some concerns. Minimum RH values will then drop back into the 35 to 45 percent range through the remainder of the week, with some areas dropping to 30 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 93 72 91 / 10 30 10 10 MCO 75 94 74 96 / 10 40 10 20 MLB 75 93 74 91 / 20 30 30 20 VRB 74 95 73 91 / 20 40 40 30 LEE 75 92 73 95 / 20 40 0 10 SFB 74 95 73 95 / 10 40 10 10 ORL 76 94 75 96 / 10 40 10 20 FPR 74 95 72 92 / 20 50 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Haley