Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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899 FXUS62 KMLB 291357 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 957 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...Continued Hot Today with Afternoon High Temperatures in the Mid to Upper 90s West of I-95... ...Sensitive Fire Weather Conditions Continue... Current-Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will usher in drier air and continue to slide southward across ECFL where it will stall around Lake Okeechobee. Surface winds will veer to NW/N behind this feature with speeds gradually approaching 10-15 mph with some higher gusts. An earlier initiation of the ECSB as winds continue to veer winds out of the NE/E from the coast inland thru the afternoon. Deepest moisture values will be associated in vicinity of the front and hence greatest convective threat across Okeechobee County, southern Brevard, and the Treasure Coast. Highest PoPs southward 20-30pct. Primary storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 50 mph locally, small hail, and heavy downpours. Diurnal activity will wind down near mid-evening well south, with mainly dry conditions overnight. The heat continues with M-U90s interior and L90s near the coast. Peak heat indices well into the 90s, except 100-105F south of the Melbourne-Kenansville line. Continued mild and humid overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s and probably in the M70s for barrier islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through mid-week. A weak cool front pushes into the area today, confining afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the Treasure Coast waters. By Thursday, no mentionable PoPs are forecast for the local Atlantic waters. Northwesterly winds early in the mornings will veer northeast/east into the afternoons, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 1-2ft. Friday-Sunday...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic increases onshore winds to around 15kts or even 15-20kts at times. PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3ft Friday will build to up to 4-5ft this weekend, as winds increase. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Today...Drier air filters into the local area today, with min RH values falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and 40-50% for coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather conditions are expected today, with light northerly winds this morning veering onshore at around 10mph this afternoon, very dry fuels, and excellent dispersion. Temperatures will also rise into the mid to upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the coast. A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but precipitation is not otherwise forecast. Thursday-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thursday, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around 10mph in the afternoon hours, with very good to excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. The difference will be the lack of forecast precipitation, with only areas along the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee forecast at a 15% chance of rain and storms. Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15mph and precipitation chances remain low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Patchy MVFR CIGs/VSBYs through 13Z as a frontal boundary sags southward across LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO/TIX; otherwise VFR. This weak front will push south of MCO after sunrise with a NW-N wind shift then stall near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon. Winds becoming NNW to N 10-12 knots and gusty behind the front then veering E/NE as the inland-moving east coast sea breeze pushes steadily inland during the afternoon. Most terminals will remain dry though isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible near and to the south of the front, mainly across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in the aftn. Greatest potential looks to be near KSUA, so have maintained a VCSH mention there starting at 17Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 97 72 96 72 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 92 72 90 73 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 93 71 91 71 / 20 0 10 10 LEE 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 97 71 95 71 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 97 73 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 93 70 91 70 / 20 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Kelly