936
FNUS72 KMLB 220909
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Shockley Plantation...USFS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
509 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure begins to build over Florida today, promoting dry and warm
conditions at the burn site. Min RH values remain above critical thresholds,
falling near 45 percent this afternoon. Light east winds are forecast under
10 mph while occasionally gusting near 15 mph. High temperatures climb into
the low 90s. Very good smoke dispersion is expected.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 73.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........14  14  7   10  12  13  19  20  18  9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............71  75  81  83  85  88  89  89  90  89
RH..............97  84  69  65  59  52  48  48  46  47
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   5   6   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.6   7   9   10  13  14  14  15  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 2.2 3.2 3.9 4.9 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   9   7   7   7   7   9   12
Dispersion idx..6   25  38  45  43  46  53  56  64  73
LVORI...........7   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....68 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      2      8      10     10     9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............88     80     75     72     69     68
RH..............49     65     78     86     93     94
20 ft wind......E 6    E 6    E 3    E 2    SE 2   E 1
20 ft wind gust.16     15     12     8      7      5
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   900    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 13   E 14   E 12   E 8    SE 7   SE 7
Dispersion idx..68     6      5      4      3      3
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the northeast
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 40.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........12        10        8         15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............68        74        86        92
RH..............96        83        56        44
20 FT wind......E 1G5     SE 2G6    SE 2G8    E 3G10
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1500      4300      6600
Transport wind..SE 6      SE 6      E 5       NE 5
Dispersion idx..2         11        25        37
LVORI...........9         4         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Law
Requested by...Tim Woody
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414845.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Timothy.woody2@usda.gov