Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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479 FXUS64 KMOB 231000 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Currently watching and early morning MCS moving across central Mississippi. This is expected to continue to weaken as it moves into Alabama, but will be something to watch for this morning. For the remainder of the period, deep layer ridging remains in place. Subsidence under this ridge, will continue to suppress showers and thunderstorm development across much of the area. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm especially across northern area, however most areas will remain dry with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 80s inland to low to mid 80s along the coast this afternoon. /13 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Mostly dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend as upper level ridging remains centered over the southwestern Gulf. This upper level pattern will result in a mainly zonal to at times northwesterly flow through the weekend with a few embedded shortwaves sliding along the northern periphery of the ridge and over northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Down at the surface, a high pressure remains positioned over the eastern Gulf/Florida Peninsula and will result in a persistent onshore flow through the weekend. With this subsident pattern in place, we expect mostly dry conditions to continue through the weekend. The only exception would be an isolated shower or storm over far interior portions of the area (generally north of Highway 84) where there could be very weak forcing as a result on the passing shortwaves. Temperatures will be warm through the weekend with highs reaching into the lower and middle 90s inland and the upper 80s along the immediate coast. It will feel even warmer with heat index values around 95-100 degrees on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Overnight lows will be mild with temperatures falling into the lower and middle 70s Friday and Saturday nights. The warmest overnight lows are expected to occur Sunday night with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches. The pattern will begin to change early next week as rain chances enter back into the forecast. A longwave trough will move eastward over the Midwest into the eastern US with the base of the trough moving overhead and flattening the ridging aloft. At the same time, a late season front will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Surface high pressure that dominated over the weekend gets pushed southeastward as this front moves into the area and rain chances become more isolated to scattered in nature on Monday and Monday night with isolated showers and storms on Tuesday. Global guidance continues to indicate this front pushing offshore on Tuesday with drier air filtering in behind it for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are also expected behind the front and will be most noticeable during the overnight hours. /14 && .MARINE... Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and waves near the coast due to the afternoon seabreeze. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 72 88 72 90 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 84 73 86 75 87 75 87 77 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 82 74 84 75 86 76 85 77 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 88 67 90 70 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 89 70 92 70 94 71 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 Camden 89 68 90 70 92 70 93 71 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 0 10 Crestview 88 66 89 69 92 69 90 72 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob