064
FXUS64 KMOB 270940
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
440 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A mid level shortwave trough was evident on the latest water vapor
imagery digging southeast across the western Tennessee Valley into
the Aklatex region. At the surface as of 09z, a cold front extended
from northwest Tennessee southwestward across central Arkansas and
into southeast Oklahoma. There were several upstream convective
complexes ongoing well ahead of the front along old outflow
boundaries generated from Sunday evening convection. The most robust
of these complexes extended from northern Alabama southwest into
south-central Mississippi. Another forward propagating mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was entering west-central Mississippi and
advancing quickly towards the southeast. The atmosphere remains very
warm and humid across much of our area southeast of the advancing
storms. This is resulting in MLCAPE values between 1500-2500j/kg and
steep mid level lapse rates over much of our forecast area. Regional
00z soundings did indicate a decent capping inversion at around 2km
AGL. Latest VAD hodographs to the northwest indicate that strong
shear remains in place across from northeast Mississippi into north-
central Alabama. Long cyclonically curved hodographs in these areas
are supporting the ongoing intensity of the convection over these
areas. Further south and west, shear weakens as evident from the
KJAN, KLIX, and KMOB VAD profiles with deep layer shear ranging from
around 40 kts at KJAN to only around 25 kts at KMOB. Despite having
plenty of moisture and instability in place, upstream convection
will begin to outrun the better forcing and shear with time this
morning. This brings into question how much the upstream convection
will hold together this morning as this occurs which will have an
impact on the overall severe weather potential this morning. The
most likely potential for any severe storms this morning will be
across our far northwest counties across interior southeast
Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama. Even across these
locations there remains questions regarding the degree of shear and
potential residual capping that could begin to hinder overall
convective intensity this far south this morning.

Weakening upstream convection to the northwest this morning should
gradually diminish but not before sending a potential convective
outflow boundary southeast into our area this morning. This outflow
boundary should eventually stall out across interior portions of our
forecast area by later this morning and into the afternoon. As the
upstream shortwave finally moves southeast towards our area by this
afternoon, additional convection should develop along the stalled
outflow boundary and in advance of a weak cold front pushing south.
The air mass along and south of the boundary will become strongly
unstable with MLCAPES ranging from 3000-4000j/kg along with steep
mid level lapse rates between 7.0 and 7.5c/km remaining in place. In
addition, deep layer shear should increase to between 35-40 kts
which should be enough to support organized convection. As storms
develop, they should quickly grow upscale as boundary parallel shear
supports quick storm interactions. The environment ahead of any
developing line of storms should remain favorable to support the
potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and large hail. This convective line should push southward towards
the coast through the afternoon into the early evening hours today
and this supports the timing of the greater severe weather threat
between early afternoon and early evening. The shortwave will
eventually move east of the region by later this evening which will
result in storm coverage and intensity eventually diminishing with
southward extent as whatever line of storms pushing south into the
northern Gulf waters.

The cold front should push south across the entire area overnight
with a return to dry weather conditions and slightly lower humidity
levels prior to sunrise Tuesday morning. Despite the gradually lower
humidity expected by late tonight, there will likely be enough
ground moisture to support at least some patchy fog later tonight
into early Tuesday morning, especially along our coastal areas as
favorable radiational conditions develop after midnight with
clearing skies and light winds.

.Coastal Hazards...

Many of you will be heading out to our local beaches today to
celebrate the Memorial Day holiday. Stronger southerly flow over the
northern Gulf waters through this morning will maintain a strong
northerly directed swell that will continue to move onto the beaches
today. This will result in a continued high risk of rip currents.
Despite the fair weather conditions expected at the beaches through
early afternoon, it will be dangerous to venture into the waves
today. In addition, the surf will remain between 2 and 3 feet,
occasionally as high as 4 feet, especially this morning at all
beaches. All beachgoers should remain out of the water today but
still enjoy time on the beach to ensure the safety of yourself and
family.

Remember that late afternoon storms will approach the beaches
bringing a threat for dangerous lightning and strong winds. So
please move off the beaches well ahead of any storms as lightning
can pose a danger several miles in advance of any rainfall. If
heading to the beach today, remain weather aware and stay out of the
water! You do not want to become a rip current or lightning
statistic. /JLH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Dry conditions expected on Tuesday as the front slides south of
the area. A northerly flow will bring drier air into the area as
high pressure builds southward. The frontal boundary along the
coast will lift northward on Wednesday, while another trough
swings into the Mississippi Valley once again. This broad upper
trough will remain over the eastern CONUS through the end of the
week, with weak shortwaves rounding the base of the trough each
day. These shortwaves, along with the weak frontal boundary along
our coast, will aid in diurnally driven convection, with isolated
thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Otherwise, expect hot and
humid conditions to continue for the region, with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows generally in the 60s.
/13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A moderate onshore flow will continue through this
morning. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon
and evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. In the
wake of the cold front on Tuesday, a light diurnal flow pattern
will persist through the week, with offshore flow at night
becoming onshore during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  72  94  69  90  68  88  67 /  40  20  10  10  20  10  20  10
Pensacola   88  75  93  72  90  71  87  71 /  60  30  10   0  10  10  10  10
Destin      86  75  90  73  88  72  87  72 /  60  30  10   0  10  10  10  10
Evergreen   91  68  93  65  89  64  88  63 /  40  20  10   0  10  10  10  10
Waynesboro  93  67  93  66  88  65  86  64 /  50  10  10  10  20  20  20  10
Camden      91  66  90  65  87  65  84  62 /  40  10   0   0  10  20  10  10
Crestview   90  69  95  65  92  65  90  64 /  60  30  10   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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