566
FXUS64 KMOB 242042
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

There is a substantial moisture and instability gradient bisecting
the forecast area this afternoon with MLCAPES of around 2500 J/kg
across inland SE MS with values less than 1000 J/kg across south
central AL. Isolated convection has been trying to develop along
this gradient as a weak shortwave traverses from west to east
across the area. However, it appears that an abundance of dry air
in the low to mid levels (above the surface) is not allowing for
sustained updrafts. The chance of isolated convection will persist
through around sunset. If a robust updraft can become established,
45-50 kt of effective deep layer shear would support a stronger
storm.

Dry conditions are then expected through the late evening into the
overnight hours. Storm chances on Saturday will hinge on how the
next MCS evolves over the Midsouth/TN Valley region tonight. Some
convective allowing models bring a weakening MCS into the far
northern and northeaster portions of the forecast area late
morning through midday. However, uncertainty is high. For now,
will go with 20-30% rain chances over these far inland areas.
Chances may need to be increased if confidence increases on a
decaying MCS approaching the region. If such a system reaches us,
deep layer shear of 40-45 kt and MLCAPES of 2000-2500 J/kg, could
support a few stronger storms with gusty winds. SPC has has a
Marginal Risk over portions of south central AL on Saturday to
cover this potential.

Patchy fog is possible over inland areas by early morning, but not
expecting an significant issues with dense fog at this time.
Otherwise, temperatures will be very similar tonight and Saturday
to what we have seen the past couple of days. Lows will only drop
into the 70s for most of the area with upper 80s and lower 90s
expected for Saturday highs. 34/JFB

&&

.SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Dry and warm conditions will prevail Saturday night through Sunday
as upper ridging builds from the west and southwest. The ridge
will be transient, however, as a longwave trough will amplify over
the eastern states as we head into early to mid next week. This
will send a late season `cold` front into the region on Monday,
with the boundary attempting to push offshore by Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, we expect an increase in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day.
It`s certainly not looking like a washout, but there will likely
be some thunderstorms present. These rain chances will linger into
Tuesday, especially along the coast, as the front hangs up over
the coastal counties. Much drier air will filter in for Wednesday
through Friday.

Despite the drier air with the front, it will not bring any cooler
weather with it for daytime highs as upper 80s to lower 90s will
be theme through the week. The drier airmass will allow low
temperatures to drop into the 60s across much of the area mid to
late week. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to
persist across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will be
enhanced across inland bay and sounds each afternoon with the
seabreeze. A cold front approaches from the north on Monday and
will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
storms Monday into Tuesday. A brief light offshore flow is
expected by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves
offshore. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  90  72  90  74  90  72  92 /   0  10   0   0   0  20  10  30
Pensacola   75  89  74  88  76  88  75  91 /  10  10  10   0   0  20  10  30
Destin      76  86  76  85  76  86  76  88 /  10  10  10   0   0  20  10  30
Evergreen   71  92  69  92  71  91  69  91 /  20  30  20   0   0  40  20  20
Waynesboro  71  93  70  92  71  92  68  92 /  10  20   0   0   0  40  30  20
Camden      71  91  70  92  72  90  68  89 /  30  30  20   0   0  40  30  20
Crestview   69  91  69  90  71  91  70  93 /  10  20  10   0   0  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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