Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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215 AWUS01 KWNH 260037 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260635- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0324 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 836 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...Northern OK...Central/Eastern KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260035Z - 260635Z SUMMARY...Clusters of supercell thunderstorms will gradually tend to merge and should evolve into pockets of larger scale MCS activity overnight. Some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible going through midnight. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery continues to show an increase in supercell thunderstorm activity across the central Plains as height falls associated with an approaching mid-level trough interacts with a moistening and increasingly unstable airmass lifting north. Some of the area VWP data shows a southerly low-level jet now on the order of 40 to 50 kts nosing up across central and northern OK and toward southern KS. The nose of this is promoting a corridor of stronger moisture convergence and instability transport which is favoring the more concentrated grouping of supercells near and to the north Enid, OK, and to the east of Medicine Lodge, KS. Given the rapid destabilization of the airmass more regionally across central/northern OK and into central and eastern KS, the convection should continue to generally grow upscale with multiple clusters of supercells that will gradually tend to merge and lead to a more organized and regional MCS threat overnight. MLCAPE values are on the order of 3500 to 4500 J/kg across areas of northern OK, with lesser magnitudes over central and eastern KS, but with a nocturnally enhanced low-level jet expected overnight ahead of the approaching upstream trough, there should be a substantial pool of instability for well-organized convection and especially with impressive deep layer shear parameters yielding persistently strong updrafts. Rainfall rates should increase over the next several hours from the enhanced moisture and instability transport, with some of the stronger supercells capable of yielding 1.5 to 2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates, and especially with any cell-mergers. Areas of far northern OK and especially southern KS are likely to see the heaviest rainfall totals going through midnight given the proximity of stronger moisture convergence/low-level jet forcing, and some of these locations may see 3 to 5 inches of rain. However, areas farther north across central and eastern KS may see other more discretely evolving clusters of strong convection that favor locally similar amounts. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours as this evening`s convection continues to organize and grow upscale. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40099637 39839520 38899464 37509464 36679523 36179618 36029737 36189832 36879867 38279851 39099822 39889748