Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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013 AWUS01 KWNH 030337 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-030735- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1136 PM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Eastern TX...Western/Central LA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030335Z - 030735Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue for at least a few more hours across areas of eastern TX and will move back into move into areas of western and central LA. Some cell-training concerns are expected to persist in the near-term, especially over eastern TX, and this will foster additional concerns for some flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery continues to show the advance of a long-lived MCS across areas of eastern TX with the heavy shower and thunderstorm activity bowing through areas of northwest LA. The convection is aligned just north of a pre-existing outflow boundary and is interacting with a substantial pool of instability along it. MUCAPE values are locally as high 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and the environment is quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches. The main concern over the next few hours will tend to be the southwest flank of the MCS involving areas of far eastern TX and into west-central LA where the convection has become aligned in more of a west-to-east training fashion given the orientation of the convection with the deeper layer flow. The MCS continues to foster some locally very cold convective tops and at least modest southwest low-level inflow around the southwest flank of the MCS should tend to maintain this activity for at least a few more hours. Rainfall rates are quite high with the stronger convective cores, and capable of reaching 2.5"/hour. The MCS should weaken after 06Z, but at least in the short-term, there may be a sufficient level of additional cell-training to promote additional 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals. Given the very moist antecedent conditions over the region from recent rainfall, these additional totals may favor some additional instances of flash flooding. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32859297 32769227 32309159 31479154 30889203 30809307 31099458 31469566 32009543 32109468 32329383