Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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165 AWUS01 KWNH 301431 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-301900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1030 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...Red River Valley into northern/northwestern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301430Z - 301900Z SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of heavy rain with periods of training will be possible into the early afternoon for portions of the Red River Valley into northern/northwestern TX. Localized rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 14Z showed an MCS over northern TX with a well defined MCV in southwestern OK. This MCS was tracking toward the southeast just north of a subtle stationary front, enhanced by outflow, draped across the region. Infrared satellite imagery showed a gradual warming with cloud tops with this lead MCS, indicative of weakening. A second MCS was located over the eastern TX Panhandle, also tracking toward the southeast, but with motion more south than east. Cloud tops were cooling with the second MCS. The 12Z FWD sounding showed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.1 C/km) and nearly 3000 J/kg MUCAPE with weak CIN and drier air in the 850-700 mb layer. Continued increases in low level moisture advection to the north, as seen on CIRA Layered PW imagery indicates that additional convective development will be likely in the vicinity of the DFW Metroplex over the next 2-4 hours as CIN weakens, also indicated by recent runs of the HRRR. Evolution of the two MCSs is uncertain, and despite the cloud top cooling observed with the second MCS over the eastern TX Panhandle, it will be moving into and overlap at least partially with an environment that has been altered by the lead MCS. It seems probable that portions of northwestern to northern TX will see multiple rounds of heavy rain and possible WSW to ESE training over the next few hours with potential for rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and storm totals of 2-4 inches through 19Z. Given sensitivity of the region due to recent heavy rainfall, flash flooding will be possible. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34049866 33979764 33879684 33429511 32199528 31679639 31969809 32379899 32829953 33179984 33719965