885
AWUS01 KWNH 310431
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-311030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0356
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Southern OK...Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310430Z - 311030Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight
are expected, and given the generally wet antecedent conditions
from recent rainfall, scattered instances of flash flooding are
likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an MCS gradually
dropping southeastward across areas of southwest OK and northwest
TX as shortwave energy/height falls continue to eject out into the
southern High Plains while interacting more regionally with a
moist and rather unstable airmass. The latest RAP analysis is
showing some MUCAPE recovery especially across northern TX to the
north of a quasi-stationary front draped across the region, and
this is in response to some modest strengthening of the warm air
advection regime ahead of the aforementioned MCS and ejecting
height falls.

MUCAPE values across areas of northern TX and southern OK are on
the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and the airmass is rather moist
with PWs of 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Recent GPS-derived analyses and
the NESDIS Blended TPW product do show a nose of higher PWs edging
up across northern TX in alignment with the low-level southerly
return flow across the region.

Areas of southern OK and especially northern TX have already seen
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours from
clusters of organized convection advancing across the region from
west and northwest. The latest hires model guidance suggests
additional round of heavy rainfall can be expected overnight with
the arrival of renewed areas of organized MCS activity.

Expect some rainfall rates to be capable of reaching 1" to 2"/hour
with the stronger cells, with additional amounts overnight
reaching as high as 3 to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals.
Given the wet antecedent conditions, these additional rains are
likely to cause at least scattered instances of flash flooding.
Some of the more urbanized location may also be susceptible to
locally enhanced runoff concerns including Ardmore in southern OK,
and the corridor from Wichita Falls to the Dallas-Fort Worth
metroplex in northern TX.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34669834 34569716 34269623 33719540 32929531
            32639604 32719762 33199909 33649958 34149944
            34539897