Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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022 AWUS01 KWNH 280151 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-280750- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 951 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...Southeast AL...Southern GA...FL Panhandle into Northeast FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 280150Z - 280750Z SUMMARY...Pockets of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3"/hour will continue over the next several hours across portions of the Southeast and may maintain an isolated threat for flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken band of very heavy showers and thunderstorms dropping gradually southeastward down across southeast AL and southern GA which will be moving into the FL Panhandle region and adjacent areas of the FL Big Bend and possible northeast FL over the next few hours. Some of the cells over southern GA in particular have been rather slow-moving and producing some very heavy hourly rates. WV satellite imagery shows a fair amount of shortwave energy advancing east toward the region from the central Gulf Coast region, and this energy will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled across the northeast Gulf Coast region and areas inland across the FL Panhandle and south-central GA. MLCAPE values are locally over 3000 J/kg with PWs close 2 inches. The HRRR guidance has been suggesting a continued convective threat over the several hours with locally high rainfall rate potential. Generally the convective threat will settle down toward the Gulf Coast with some outflow boundary evolution facilitating this southward advance. Some localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals will be possible, and there will be some localized repeating of cells potentially over southern GA and for parts of the FL Panhandle east into northeast FL that may yield these heavier amounts. An isolated instance or two of flash flooding will be possible where some of these stronger cells and heavier rainfall rates tend to repeat over the same area, and generally the more urbanized areas will be at greatest risk of runoff problems. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31718454 31718377 31518314 31168196 30798141 30168148 29818203 29758324 29918415 29688499 30168568 30568581 30998571 31468522