682
AWUS01 KWNH 302052
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-310205-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...Northeast NM...Texas Panhandle... Oklahoma
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302050Z - 310205Z

SUMMARY...Expanding cluster at apex of solid moisture return.
Some cells may cross areas recently affected by heavy rainfall.
Spots of flash flooding becoming possible through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows an expanding cluster of
thunderstorms over far NE NM into the Western OK and Northwestern
TX Panhandles.  This is at the apex of return moisture axis along
the outflow reinforced frontal zone that exists along the NM/TX
boarder.  This southerly flow intersecting with a slight dryline
bulge near the SE Colorado surface low, provided and continues to
support moisture flux of this enhanced moisture/theta-E
air....with 1.25 total PWats in place, slowly increasing with
time.  CIRA LPW also denotes an enhanced pocket of modest moisture
in the 850-700 and 700-500 layer in proximity of the developing
complex, likely resulting in its further expansion. MLCAPEs are
uncapped with 2000-2500 J/kg to support stronger updrafts and with
magnitude of flux convergence should support 1.5"/hr rates perhaps
slightly higher with storm scale interaction.

Deep layer steering is weak toward the northeast at 5-10kts, but
propagation and access to the higher theta-E air will allow for a
southeastward propagation and further expansion of the cluster
into a larger complex through the evening.  As such, localized
totals of 3" are possible through the track which is expected
across the Canadian River Valley of the Texas Panhandle where
higher FFG values exist.  However, further southward expansion
near the dry line and outflow reinforced cold front may also
expand in development southward into the Cap Rock where recent
heavy rainfall has reduced FFG values allowing for similar
rates/totals to potentially exceed.  With southwesterly flow aloft
and expected slow westward retrograde of the dry line/front,
flanking line redevelopment and steering flow may allow for
short-term training/repeating as we have seen in the last few days
increasing potential for localized FF to be possible this evening.


Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36910229 36450103 35409969 33919970 33250117
            33820336 35510412 36300344