015
AWUS01 KWNH 310944
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-311442-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310942Z - 311442Z

SUMMARY...A strong forward-propagating QLCS will be sweeping
through central to southeast TX this morning. Heavy rainfall rates
and locally wet antecedent conditions may result in some instances
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
cold-topped and forward-propagating MCS accelerating southeastward
through central TX and very quickly encroaching on the southeast
TX coastal plain.

The airmass downstream of the convective complex involving areas
of south-central TX through over to the middle TX coast is quite
unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. However, areas
farther northeast across southeast TX and toward the upper TX
coast are more stable and on the cool side of a lingering outflow
boundary laid down from convection earlier last evening.

A look at the VWP data shows a southeast low-level jet of 30+ kts
coming in off the Gulf of Mexico which should support some
instability recovery for southeast TX out ahead of the approaching
QLCS. The strong kinematics associated with the QLCS itself and
the downstream moisture/instability environment will favor
convective sustenance through sunrise with areas of south-central
to southeast TX being impacted by a largely severe QLCS that will
also have the capability to produce heavy rainfall totals.

Rainfall amounts of as much as 1 to 1.5 inches in 30 minutes will
be possible with the leading edge of the convective bow. However,
portions of the overall convective mass, and especially the
southwest flank of it closer to the south-central TX may see the
line tend to slow its forward propagation with some potential for
some cell-training. Localized storm totals may reach as much as 2
to 4 inches for instances where some cell-training occurs going
through the early morning hours.

The antecedent conditions across southeast TX are rather
wet/sensitive, and this area overall will tend to have the
greatest potential for some instances of flash flooding. This
includes areas from around Huntsville down to the Houston
metropolitan area. A more localized and mainly urban flash flood
threat though will exist farther to the southwest over
south-central TX including areas around Austin on down to New
Braunfels and east to the Wharton area given the potential for a
bit more cell-training and heavier totals overall despite these
areas being drier.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32009608 31699449 30929372 29839375 29239451
            28709578 28609697 29009820 29439900 29989965
            30389996 30799959 30949812 31219734 31889688