140
AWUS01 KWNH 162049
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-170247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1025
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeast SC & eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162047Z - 170247Z

Summary...A deep layer cyclone will continue moving inland near
the SC/NC border.  Heavy rainfall within its comma head
circulation and banding to its east will lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A deep layer cyclone, designated as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight by NHC earlier, continues to move inland
across far northeast SC.  ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg is being
imported into southeast NC on its eastern flank, which has been
driving a narrow line of convection pushing slowly up the coastal
plain of NC.  Precipitable water values are 1.75-2.25" in this
region.  Effective bulk shear remains 30-35 kts.

There are a few foci for heavy rainfall from this system -- the
stratiform heavy rain shield to its west-northwest, the heavy rain
band moving up the NC coast, and the coastal front moving towards
the Fall Line on its northeast side.  Within the stratiform rain
shield, 1-2" an hour totals and additional totals to 3" remain
possible over the next several hours as the system moves
west-northwest.  Within the primary heavy rain band, hourly totals
up to 4" and local totals to 8" remain possible as it drifts
northeast.  Near the coastal front in eastern NC, hourly rain
totals to 2.5" and local totals to 5" remain possible as it moves
farther inland.  The biggest concern is if a new heavy rain band
forms closer to Southport-Oak Island-Bolivia-Carolina Beach while
the cyclone moves inland as radar estimates of rain so far in that
area are close to 18".

In many areas of central and eastern NC, along with far northeast
SC, soils are saturating if not saturated, causing 3 hourly flash
flood guidance to be increasingly low and easier to achieve.
Flash flooding is considered likely.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36078040 35957828 35597658 35227581 35107569
            34587650 34287709 33827775 33417879 34038004
            34648089 35618162