Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
659 AWUS01 KWNH 301805 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 204 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...eastern KS, northeastern OK into far western MO/northwestern AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301802Z - 310000Z SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across portions of eastern KS, northeastern OK into far western MO/northwestern AR through 00Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be most common but spotty 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates may also occur. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaic across the Great Plains at 1745Z showed a number of MCVs tracking ENE across KS and OK, part of an elongated shortwave trough embedded within a broader region of weak mid to upper-level ridging located between the Great Plains and MS Valley. Flow aloft was modestly diffluent near the ridge axis. A broken line of strong thunderstorms extended ahead of the MCVs from the east-central KS/OK border down into southeastern OK but the highest rainfall rates have been tied to thunderstorms just south of the KS/OK border near I-35 which have shown signs of training and slow movement. MRMS-derived rates with this activity have peaked in the 2-3 in/hr range since 16Z. The environment ahead of the storms consisted of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (higher to south) and a narrow axis of higher moisture comprised of 1.4 to 1.7 inches of precipitable water (via 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data) extending northward from southeastern OK into eastern KS. While flow suggests the convective activity, generally oriented from north to south, should continue to generally move toward the east over the next few hours, there will be periods of slower movement and training within the broader activity shifting E/ENE ahead of the MCVs/mid-level trough axis. Instability is not forecast to increase appreciably through the remainder of the afternoon, but continued low level moisture advection should help to erode weak CIN estimated across eastern portions of KS/OK. Periods of training and slow movement of heavy rain cores is expected to produce rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr, but with rates closer to the 3 in/hr range remaining rather localized. Flash flooding will be possible over the next 6 hours, but is expected to remain localized. Eastward extent of the flash flood threat into far western MO/northwestern AR is expected to be limited as instability drops off with eastward extent. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39919608 39819467 38619437 37519415 35779400 35059481 35089615 35789680 36789761 37849715 38929678