659
AWUS01 KWNH 301805
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...eastern KS, northeastern OK into far western
MO/northwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301802Z - 310000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of eastern KS, northeastern OK into far western
MO/northwestern AR through 00Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will
be most common but spotty 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates may also
occur.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaic across the Great Plains at
1745Z showed a number of MCVs tracking ENE across KS and OK, part
of an elongated shortwave trough embedded within a broader region
of weak mid to upper-level ridging located between the Great
Plains and MS Valley. Flow aloft was modestly diffluent near the
ridge axis. A broken line of strong thunderstorms extended ahead
of the MCVs from the east-central KS/OK border down into
southeastern OK but the highest rainfall rates have been tied to
thunderstorms just south of the KS/OK border near I-35 which have
shown signs of training and slow movement. MRMS-derived rates with
this activity have peaked in the 2-3 in/hr range since 16Z. The
environment ahead of the storms consisted of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(higher to south) and a narrow axis of higher moisture comprised
of 1.4 to 1.7 inches of precipitable water (via 17Z SPC
mesoanalysis data) extending northward from southeastern OK into
eastern KS.

While flow suggests the convective activity, generally oriented
from north to south, should continue to generally move toward the
east over the next few hours, there will be periods of slower
movement and training within the broader activity shifting E/ENE
ahead of the MCVs/mid-level trough axis. Instability is not
forecast to increase appreciably through the remainder of the
afternoon, but continued low level moisture advection should help
to erode weak CIN estimated across eastern portions of KS/OK.
Periods of training and slow movement of heavy rain cores is
expected to produce rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr, but with rates
closer to the 3 in/hr range remaining rather localized. Flash
flooding will be possible over the next 6 hours, but is expected
to remain localized. Eastward extent of the flash flood threat
into far western MO/northwestern AR is expected to be limited as
instability drops off with eastward extent.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39919608 39819467 38619437 37519415 35779400
            35059481 35089615 35789680 36789761 37849715
            38929678