086
AWUS01 KWNH 310533
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-311032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0357
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern KS and Far Southeast NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310532Z - 311032Z

SUMMARY...Very concentrated areas of heavy rainfall continue
across portions of eastern KS and far southeast NE. Additional
flash flooding is likely overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery continues to show two
distinct areas of very heavy rainfall impacting portions of
eastern KS and far southeast NE in association with a compact and
somewhat elongated 850/700 mb low center that is nearly stationary
across eastern KS.

The areas of heavy rainfall are extremely efficient in nature with
relatively shallow/warm convective tops noted in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery. An objective look at the RAP/HRRR guidance and
area VWP data suggests very focused 850/700 mb speed
convergence/moisture transport into a pair of compact mid-level
vort centers that are embedded within the relatively elongated
north/south low center and overall trough axis.

Generally the instability parameters over eastern KS are quite
modest with only about 500 to 750 J/kg of MUCAPE, but with a
persistent 30+ kt southeast low-level jet focused around the
eastern flank of the low to mid-level low center, there has been a
very persistent and sustainable degree of forcing that is yielding
locally enhanced rainfall rates and subsequent totals.

Rainfall rates of up to 2"/hour are expected to continue in the
near-term, with perhaps some slight westward retrogression of the
energy that may shift the focus of heavier rainfall totals a
little farther west across areas of east-central KS and far
southeast NE. Some areas of northeast KS may also need to be
closely watched for some heavy shower development here given the
degree of moist low-level inflow/forcing coming in across the
Lower MO Valley.

Additional rainfall totals overnight of 3 to 5+ inches are
expected locally. Areas of flash flooding will continue, and some
of it may be significant where these heavier totals continue to
focus.

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40379572 40039526 39109511 38149519 37729552
            37769627 38249675 39169684 39839661 40299625