165
AWUS01 KWNH 301431
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-301900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...Red River Valley into northern/northwestern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301430Z - 301900Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of heavy rain with periods of training
will be possible into the early afternoon for portions of the Red
River Valley into northern/northwestern TX. Localized rainfall
totals of 2-4 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 14Z showed an MCS over
northern TX with a well defined MCV in southwestern OK. This MCS
was tracking toward the southeast just north of a subtle
stationary front, enhanced by outflow, draped across the region.
Infrared satellite imagery showed a gradual warming with cloud
tops with this lead MCS, indicative of weakening. A second MCS was
located over the eastern TX Panhandle, also tracking toward the
southeast, but with motion more south than east. Cloud tops were
cooling with the second MCS. The 12Z FWD sounding showed steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8.1 C/km) and nearly 3000 J/kg MUCAPE with
weak CIN and drier air in the 850-700 mb layer. Continued
increases in low level moisture advection to the north, as seen on
CIRA Layered PW imagery indicates that additional convective
development will be likely in the vicinity of the DFW Metroplex
over the next 2-4 hours as CIN weakens, also indicated by recent
runs of the HRRR.

Evolution of the two MCSs is uncertain, and despite the cloud top
cooling observed with the second MCS over the eastern TX
Panhandle, it will be moving into and overlap at least partially
with an environment that has been altered by the lead MCS. It
seems probable that portions of northwestern to northern TX will
see multiple rounds of heavy rain and possible WSW to ESE training
over the next few hours with potential for rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr and storm totals of 2-4 inches through 19Z. Given
sensitivity of the region due to recent heavy rainfall, flash
flooding will be possible.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34049866 33979764 33879684 33429511 32199528
            31679639 31969809 32379899 32829953 33179984
            33719965