119
AWUS01 KWNH 301458
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-301900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0345
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301455Z - 301900Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across the
Lower MS Valley into the early afternoon with slow moving
thunderstorms capable of producing 2-3 in/hr rainfall rates. The
threat is expected to diminish by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery across the Lower MS Valley
showed ongoing convection near a stationary front with an outflow
boundary analyzed from just south of MCB, HEZ into northeastern
LA. 14Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed a gradient in MLCAPE with
500-1000 J/kg just south of the ongoing thunderstorms, in
association with the front/outflow boundary. In addition to low
level flow overrunning the relatively cooler air to the north, an
area of enhanced low level moisture transport was noted in the
925-850 mb layer over southwestern MS, converging near and south
of I-20. MRMS indicated peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr over the
past few hours from southwestern MS into adjacent portions of LA.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue over the next few hours
with continued slow movement at times in the vicinity of the low
level convergence axis. Short term RAP forecasts show weakening of
the low level moisture transport and convergence axis through 20Z,
which with the onset of peak heating, should disrupt the ongoing
area of slow moving convection. However, until that happens,
additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be possible which
may result in at least localized flash flooding from intense short
term rainfall rates.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32579214 32079003 31628865 30818875 30699062
            31499316 32419336