519
AWUS01 KWNH 030206
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030805-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Southeast ND...Much of Central and
Southern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030205Z - 030805Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the next several hours across the broader Upper
MS Valley region. Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely
to continue.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar shows several clusters of organized convection
producing heavy rainfall across southeast ND, eastern SD, and into
central and southern MN. Additional convective cloud top cooling
has been noted recently across especially areas of eastern SD, and
there continues to be a general trend toward these clusters of
convection merging together and consolidating into what should
gradually be a larger scale MCS.

A mid-level trough is advancing gradually east into the Upper MS
Valley and this is driving surface low pressure across eastern SD
right now. This is focusing the nose of strongest warm air
advection from far eastern SD into western MN, and there is a
moderate to strongly unstable airmass pooled across the region,
with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. Area VWP data shows a
convergent low-level jet of 40+ kts across this region, and this
is supporting strong moisture convergence and instability
transport into a quasi-stationary front that extends from
northeast SD down through southwest MN.

Over the next several hours, a combination of cell-mergers and
additional clusters of convective development out ahead of the
surface low center will maintain a regional threat of heavy
rainfall, with rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching
2"/hour and some storm totals that may reach 3 to 5 inches.

There is some meaningful spread in the latest CAM guidance, but
the consensus going through 06Z to 08Z suggests that far eastern
SD, west-central to southwest MN and eventually northwest IA will
be the focus for the most organized convective activity and
heaviest rainfall.

Areas of flash flooding are already occurring over areas of
eastern SD, and the additional areas of flash flooding are likely
over the next several hours as heavy rainfall continues to move
off to the east and southeast.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...BIS...DLH...DMX...FGF...FSD...MPX...
OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   46799602 46699482 46289374 45609282 44539245
            43389273 42419405 42089538 42269651 43109755
            44019821 44969867 45759861 46209817 46639728