850
AWUS01 KWNH 020853
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-021252-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...Northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020852Z - 021252Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally back-building/training showers
and thunderstorms are expected to maintain a concern for at least
localized flash flooding early this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
persistent small-scale west to east band of back-building and
training showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of northwest
to north-central AL. The activity is being facilitated by the
passage of a shortwave trough with a relatively convergent
low-level warm air advection pattern with MUCAPE values of 500 to
1000 J/kg seen advancing gradually east into northern AL.

The emphasis most recently has been on parts of Walker, Marion,
Fayette and Lamar Counties where some very heavy rainfall rates
reaching 2.0 to 2.5"/hour have been noted within the band of
convection. Some GC-MRMS totals are on the order of 3 to 4 inches
over the last 3-hour period.

The flow pattern aloft is rather divergent with the aid of
shortwave energy traversing the broader Mid-South, and with
instability still pooling in across northern AL from the
southwest, areas of convection are likely to persist at least over
the next few hours.

PWs of 1.5+ inches are currently pooled up across northern AL, and
this coupled with the instability should continue to yield
rainfall rates that locally approach or exceed 2"/hour. Some
additional 2 to 4+ inch rainfall totals will be possible over the
next few hours where these smaller-sale bands of convection tend
to focus. This will include especially areas of north-central to
northeast AL going through 12Z.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35078611 34968554 34458555 34058583 33788619
            33718704 33858771 34118777 34348735 34808670