820
FXUS63 KMPX 240829
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers & thunderstorms expected this morning. A Marginal Risk of
severe weather (mainly damaging wind and hail) across western
Wisconsin this afternoon.

- Cooler Memorial Day weekend with periodic chances for rain,
  mainly on Sunday.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Now through this evening...IR satellite imagery this morning showing
a broad area of cold cloud tops extending from SW Minnesota to
northern Kansas. Beneath the cloud cover, radar reflectivity
showing an MCS that is producing quite the pre-dawn stir in
Nebraska and Iowa. Meanwhile at the Minnesota/Iowa border, a
discrete warm front is providing some buoyancy to where
convection has developed. These storms will gradually make there
way north/northeast and eventually become less organized as
they decouple away from the better forcing environment over
Iowa. Prior to sunrise, the threat of severe weather remains low
however near-term RAP Soundings showing elevated instability of
~1500 J/kg along with weak low-level shear of 30kts. Therefore
a few cells across southern MN may become strong and briefly
produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds. Rainfall is expected to
have a few hours of pause late this morning before
redevelopment occurs mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon. Another round of severe storms is possible for
this region but the ongoing convection early this morning will
have influence on the environment later this afternoon as noted
in the latest SPC Convective Outlook. Highest confidence for the
strongest convection will be tied to our Wisconsin counties
with the primary hazards being mainly wind and hail, however a
weak tornado cannot be ruled out given shear profiles. Rainfall
amounts remaining on track with previous thinking ranging from
0.25" to 0.50" across central MN and southern MN to western WI
seeing 0.50 to an 1.00" Temperatures today will near be near the
70 deg mark. Winds will also be increased given the passage of
this cold front. Western MN could see 30-35mph wind gusts before
decreasing this evening.

Memorial Day weekend...For the eager beavers ready to kick off their
memorial day holiday plans, overall the forecast looks fairly decent
and slightly cooler. A series of shortwaves associated with an
upper- level troughing pattern out to our west will eject
several shortwaves towards the central CONUS. Saturday will be
quiet except for increasing cloudiness in the afternoon with
temps in the low 70s. Sunday looks like "worst" day of the
weekend as likely PoPs have been introduced with the latest NBM
guidance, especially across southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Sunday temps will range in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Memorial Day Monday features partly cloudy skies with a chance
of showers/storms and highs in the upper 60s. According to the
MN State Climatology office, this temperature forecast falls in
slightly cooler than what we typically see for this holiday
weekend. As there have been some hot Memorial Days in the past.

Looking into the latter half of next week, temperatures will remain
in the 70s with periodic rain chances but also potential to dry
out for a few days and slightly warmer than average
temperatures as we head into June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR to start for all TAF sites. However, conditions are expected
to become degraded starting in SW MN as SHRA/TSRA move in from
the central Plains. MVFR conditions are likely with the
activity, with IFR visibilities possible in some of the heavier
storms. TSRA may well persist into the early afternoon hours
with additional rounds of precipitation that look to develop.
Clearing is likely late afternoon through the evening hours as
the frontal boundary responsible for the precipitation moves
into WI, towards the Great Lakes. Winds will start out SE, then
gradually veer around the compass, eventually becoming W by late
this afternoon into this evening. Speeds will increase to around
15G25kts this afternoon, mainly behind the precipitation.

KMSP...Timing for initial round of TS looks to be between
11z-15z, or essentially throughout the duration of the morning
push. Have held conditions as MVFR but visibilities down to
around 2sm cannot be ruled out. Next round of TS may be around
18z or so, but confidence on that occurrence is lower so have
held TS to just the morning hours at this point and will see how
radar trends evolve later on this morning into early afternoon.
VFR conditions likely come time of the afternoon push.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E to NE 10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC