251
FNUS73 KMPX 161243
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Nygard Tract Rx burn...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
743 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Nygard Tract Rx burn, dewpoints will decrease slightly
while temperatures rise back up into the low-mid 70s this
afternoon. As such, we`ll see RH values gradually decrease through
the morning and afternoon until bottoming out in the low 40s /
high 30s around 3-5pm. Winds will stay out of the northwest today
at generally 10-15mph. Scattered light rain is possible (5-10%
chance) overnight, otherwise dry weather will persist over the
next 48 hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 74.
RH..................69 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 13
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /49500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /80800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  64  66  68  69  71  72  73  73  73  70  64
RH..............69  65  61  54  50  46  42  41  40  39  45  57
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   S
20 FT wind spd..13  13  12  10  10  9   8   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.17  18  17  16  15  14  13  12  10  9   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.0 4.3 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  18  17  16  15  16  15  14  12  9   6   10
Haines index....3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    5 to 6 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (59600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the northwest around 10 mph late in
                    the evening shifting to the south 9 to 16 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Max 89.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 14 mph increasing to 13 to 14
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (94500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (110400
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Nicholas Trauba
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414378.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nicholas.trauba@state.mn.us