959
FNUS73 KMPX 171234
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lake Eleanor Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
734 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Lake Eleanor Rx, any stray showers should be moving out
this morning, allowing skies to mostly clear out. Temperatures
will make a run up into the upper 80s depending on how much
persistent sunlight we see today. This would allow RH values to
drop as low as the upper 20s by this afternoon. Winds will be
light this morning, but will pick up in strength this afternoon
out of the south, with gusts up to 15-20 mph possible at times.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 86.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /14600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /107200 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (131200 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  63  69  73  78  81  83  84  86  86  86  85
RH..............75  69  58  51  44  40  34  31  28  28  28  31
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  12  10  10  12  13  14  14  13  13
20 FT wind gust.16  17  17  18  17  16  18  20  21  22  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.7 5.0 6.1 7.1 7.7 7.0 3.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  17  16  15  14  14  15  16  17  20  22  18
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 65.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (60900 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
                    (17600 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (8500 knot-ft) late in the night early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    west 16 to 20 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (109600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (99400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 21 mph shifting to the west 22 to
                    29 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Area Wildlife Supervisor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414498.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cory.netland@state.mn.us