020
FXUS64 KMRX 251253 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
853 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

An update has been issued to adjust PoP/Wx grids to better match
the current radar trends, increasing PoPs south and lowering PoPs
north. Some scattered to isolated develop will be possible in all
areas this afternoon behind the morning convection in association
with a weak shortwave trough over a moist low level air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Best chance for showers and storms appears to be this morning.

2. This afternoon and evening shower/storm activity looks to be
isolated.

Discussion:

Some showers/storms on radar currently (2 AM EDT) moving into NE
Tennessee and SW Virginia. A MCS is in Western Kentucky moving
southeast toward Middle Tennessee. A line of storms is also
developing from Nashville to Clarksville. None of the CAMs are
handling that activity well but generally have activity weakening
before moving into our region this morning. Confidence is low on
how widespread showers and storms will be this morning.

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow continues today and tonight
with high pressure near the surface. A frontal system will kick
out of the Rockies today moving into Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma
tonight.

This afternoon/evening showers and storms will be more isolated.
Model guidance including CAMs are all over the place on timing but
generally show isolated activity this afternoon and evening. CAMs
have weak development this afternoon and SPC has our region in
general thunder today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Round of strong to severe storms should move through Sunday into
Monday morning.

2. Drier and cooler weather expected to begin Tuesday night through
the end of next week.

Discussion:

Sunday will see another day of with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as the slow moving low spins towards the Great Lakes
Region, and pushes a front through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
overnight. There could be some initial strong storms in the day on
Sunday, but the more widespread and impactful storms look to come
during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. Convection will be
ongoing to our northwest across the Ohio Valley later in the
afternoon on Sunday, and most CAMs are suggesting storms should
converge into a more linear complex as it moves southeastward
overnight. As it moves into the eastern Tennessee Valley the big
question will be how long storms are able to maintain their strength
during the overnight hours. Most models have the system really dying
out as it moves into our area with overnight stabilization trying to
take place , but cannot rule out seeing strong storms all the way
into the southern Appalachian mountains. Forecast soundings indicate
the environment could be conducive to producing all types of severe
weather with damaging straight-line winds as the most widespread
threat, however large hail, flooding, and a few tornadoes cannot be
ruled out at this time.

Eventually on Monday the front will finally sweep through the region
bringing in drier air from the northwest, but we could see some
additional storm development if the front slows down and the
atmosphere destabilizes in the afternoon hours along the stalled
front.

Most places should get a break in storm chances beginning Tuesday
and continuing thorugh much of the rest of the work week.
Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals for much of the
remainder of the work week with a slow warming trend beginning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Storms are
moving into TYS and CHA currently and will continue for 2 or 3
hours. Thunder is less likely at TRI but may occur if storms hold
together long enough to get there. This afternoon and evening,
shower and storm activity will be more isolated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  68  89  70 /  80  30  30  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  66  86  69 /  70  20  50  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  66  86  68 /  30  20  50  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  63  84  65 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
AVIATION...McD