202
FXUS64 KMRX 281921
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
321 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Message:

1. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and quiet weather this
afternoon. A few showers or storms before sunset southwest Virginia.

2. Mostly clear skies tonight with light winds. Patchy fog late.

3. Wednesday mostly sunny again. A few more clouds northeast. Maybe
a sprinkle late in southwest Virginia.

Discussion:

The remainder of today should be pleasant as dew points have dropped
into the lower 50s west and mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Temperatures
were in the 70s except lower 80s in the southern valley. The drier
airmass was moving in from the west and northwest. In the upper
levels, a digging upper trough covered the eastern third of the
country. A shortwave moving through the base of the trough was
triggering a few showers mainly to the north of the region in West
Virginia. This trough will dig a little farther south tonight and
Wednesday. This will keep the area in a northwest flow with cooler
temperatures and low relative humidities due to lower dewpoints. A
few showers may pop up in southwest Virginia late this afternoon to
early evening but did not include pops. Tonight skies are clear with
lows in the 50s. Winds will be light and patchy fog will form in
some isolated locations. Wednesday conditions will be similar. Highs
again in the 70s to lower 80s, slightly cooler northeast sections.
Another shortwave moving through the trough will increase
moisture in the northeast with a few light showers or a storm
again across the Virginia counties but coverage to isolated to
mention in zone forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through at least Friday with highs a
few degrees below normal.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region Saturday afternoon. Low rain chances to continue into
next week.

Discussion:

To start the period Thursday morning the upper trough will be
heavily influencing our weather, with a dry front and northwest flow
helping to usher in reinforcing cool air into the region.
Temperatures will be running a pleasant 5-10 degrees below normal,
and with dry weather expected should have a lovely end to the
workweek. After that a narrow ridge will pass Friday into Saturday
morning before a series of weak shortwaves begin to swing through
for the remainder of the period. GFS today has a stronger shortwave
on Saturday working across the southern Midwestern states, but it
seems to be an outlier versus the rest of the guidance. GFS is also
notably faster with the weather on Saturday, so maintained NBM and
consensus with a slower increase in PoPs. The good news is cloud
cover from the approaching systems should help keep temperatures
closer to or just below normal for a little while longer before
possibly returning to more typical early June conditions by the end
of the period. The other good info is the GFS and Euro ensembles are
not keen on a heavy rainfall pattern, with only a 20% chance of
exceeding one inch through the long term. With the chaotic flow of
weak shortwaves swinging through, limited PoPs to chance until
certainty can increase when the weekend draws nearer.


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Generally clear to partly cloudy skies with gusty westerly winds
throughout the day, becoming light and variable after 00Z. VFR
conditions are expected tonight and Wednesday as a drier airmass
and some wind will prevent fog formation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  83  59  79 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  58  78  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  79  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  74  50  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...TD