Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
174 FXUS65 KMSO 180653 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1253 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 .UPDATE...No updates to the discussion necessary overnight. && .DISCUSSION...Given the lighter winds, dry air, and partial clearing overnight, lows will drop into the low to mid 30s in lower western Montana and higher central Idaho valleys this morning. Today will be a fairly nice day overall under zonal flow. Valley high temperatures will return to seasonable levels (mid/upper 60s) along with afternoon breezes and a few showers returning by late afternoon. Upper level troughing settles in Sunday accompanied by cooler temperatures and scattered showers. Snow levels drop to around 5000 feet but no impact is anticipated for road surfaces. There is a 30-50% probability of at least 0.25 inch of precipitation from the Flathead Valley eastward into the Glacier region. Overall, precipitation amounts will be light for the rest of the Northern Rockies. As the trough lingers, scattered instability showers pop up on Monday afternoon. Frost will continue to be a concern in valleys early next week but overnight temperatures will be very dependent on cloud cover. By next Wednesday-Friday (22nd-24th), about 80% of ensemble clusters support a pattern favorable for closed low development across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Closed lows often bring widespread precipitation to the Northern Rockies this time of year, stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Mostly benign weather will persist today and tonight. Breezy afternoon winds will once again occur at most terminals today after about 18/1800Z, with localized gusts to 25-30 knots through 19/0300Z or shortly thereafter. Showers will occur and impact KGPI in the form of gusty outflow winds and graupel/rain showers after 18/1800. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$