315
FXUS65 KMSO 300802
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
202 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.DISCUSSION...A few showers remain this morning as a broad trough
exits into southern Saskatchewan. Partial clearing has occurred
which will allow for localized areas of valley frost this
morning, particularly in northwest Montana. Scattered instability
showers are anticipated this afternoon, primarily focused in
northwest Montana as well. Otherwise, high temperatures will be
similar to Wednesday with westerly gusts of 15-25 mph.

Mostly clear skies tonight into Friday morning will allow for
widespread frost potential for many valleys of the Northern
Rockies. High temperatures return to normal (valley highs in the
upper 60s to 70s) on Friday under weak ridging.

Over the weekend, temperatures remain near average under zonal
flow. A weak disturbance on Saturday will set the stage for
scattered showers but precipitation amounts appear rather light.
Conditions will be drier again on Sunday.

Next Monday, ensembles are showing the possibility of an
atmospheric river impacting the region. There is quite a wide
spread in the ensembles, as there often is with these types of
systems. There is an 70 to 80 percent chance of picking up at
least 0.10 inches of rain across western Montana, and for central
Idaho it`s over 90 percent. The median forecasts are coming in
with 0.25 to 0.50 inches across western Montana and 0.65 - 1.00
inches for much of central Idaho. The high end forecasts in
western Montana are peaking out at around 1 inch and in central
Idaho over 2 inches. The highest probabilities and amounts are
focused in the higher elevations south and east of Grangeville, ID
and include Elk City, Red River, and Dixie in Idaho. Right now,
the mainstem river forecasts do not approach flood stage, but a
possible impact may be small stream flooding across north- central
Idaho during this period.

The latter part of next week, the preponderance of models show a
strong ridge building in leading to an extended period of warmer
temperatures with a day or two of thunderstorms mixed in.

&&

.AVIATION...As the broad trough exits to the east, watch for
mountain obscurations and patchy valley fog this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be common today under northwest
flow. Scattered instability showers are expected this afternoon,
primarily focused in northwest Montana. Westerly wind gusts of
15-25 kts will be common late morning through early evening as
well. Showers will diminish this evening with a mostly clear and
mostly dry Friday.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Friday for Kootenai/Cabinet
     Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$