Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
191 FXUS65 KMSO 290748 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 148 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .DISCUSSION...Areas of showers persist over the Northern Rockies early this morning as a weak cold front gradually moves eastward. An upper trough settles in this afternoon through early Thursday with several additional rounds of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Westerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common this afternoon as well, diminishing in the valleys near sunset. Boaters should watch for choppy conditions on area lakes. Instability showers continue on Thursday but coverage will more limited, primarily concentrated in northwest Montana. High temperatures will also be considerably cooler today and Thursday, up to 25 degrees lower than Tuesday. Watch for localized valley frost Thursday and Friday mornings where partial clearing occurs. Overall Friday looks to be a mostly dry day under weak ridging. The flow becomes zonal over the coming weekend with seasonable temperatures (valley highs in the upper 60s to 70s). A weak disturbance on Saturday will set the stage for scattered showers but conditions will be drier again on Sunday. Ensemble clusters (nearly 80%) continue to trend wetter on Monday and Tuesday of next week under southwest flow. This is followed by a high probability (70%) of warming/drying under high pressure ridging for the latter half of next week but there is some uncertainty on the strength of the ridge. && .AVIATION...Areas of showers and mountain obscurations continue to linger over the Northern Rockies as a weak cold front gradually moves eastward early this morning. An upper trough settles in this afternoon through early Thursday with several additional rounds of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Brief visibility and ceiling reductions along with mountain obscurations will occur with the heavier showers. Westerly wind gusts of 20-30 kts will be common this afternoon, diminishing in the valleys near sunset. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$