Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
418 FXUS65 KMSO 281808 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1208 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 ...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 60 MPH WINDS AFFECTING YOU... .DISCUSSION...A trough is digging into the west coast and pushing the ridge to the east and setting up southwest flow over the region, which is a classic thunderstorm pattern for this area. Convection already kicked off this morning across northwest Montana, but has remained as showers and not yet become thunderstorms. The most unstable conditions and strongest shear started over central Idaho near Grangeville and Orofino late this morning and are moving across Idaho county. This is the area most likely to get severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds over 60 mph or large hail. There is a 10 percent chance of being affected by winds greater than 60 mph for locations in central Idaho and western Montana today and tonight. Thunderstorms will continue for through the night and transition to showers Wednesday morning as the trough finally moves into our region. Wednesday, the base of the trough is over our region and it will be windy with gusts in the 15-25 mph range common and temperatures about 20 degrees cooler than today. By the end of the week it will dry out again and return to near average temperatures. The generally westerly flow will support showers at times, but so far no models are indicating another significant round of thunderstorms until next week. && .AVIATION...The ridge over the area today is breaking down causing increasing cloud cover and decreasing stability. Thunderstorms and showers will initiate early this afternoon and persist across the region through tonight. There is potential for severe thunderstorms this evening, especially from 28/22Z through 29/01Z when there is a 10 percent chance of a terminal being impacted by 60 mph or stronger winds. Tomorrow will be much cooler and showery. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$