Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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392 FXUS66 KMTR 040015 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 515 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonal averages today. Tomorrow sees a dramatic warmup with a Heat Advisory in effect for the inland areas through Thursday. Temperatures will moderate towards the latter part of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The morning started pretty cloudy across the region as mid- to high level clouds stemming from a cold front coming through the Pacific Northwest came through the region. Several stations recorded coastal and orographically forced drizzle this morning, but accumulations topped out at a few hundredths of an inch. Current satellite imagery is showing breaks in the cloud cover as the high clouds move away, while as far as satellite imagery and observations show, lower clouds linger mainly along the coast of western San Mateo County and scattered throughout the coastal ranges. Breezy northwest winds will continue today with winds gusting to 20 to 30 miles per hour at the gaps and passes. Temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonal averages, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, to the mid 60s to lower 70s at the Bayshore, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys. Low temperatures will hover between the low to mid 50s, with the upper 50s expected in the inland portions of the North and East Bays. Tuesday sees a pattern change as a ridge building in the eastern pacific impacts our state. High temperatures will warm quite dramatically with 10-20 degree increases expected across the region. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s at the immediate coast, to the upper 70s to mid 80s along the Bayshore, and in the 90s for the inland valleys with the warmest locations reaching 100. A Heat Advisory comes into effect Tuesday for the inland North Bay and East Bay, extending into Thursday. Moderate HeatRisk (corresponding to a risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations, such as children, the elderly, pregnant women, the ill, or those working outdoors) is expected for most of the inland Bay Area and Central Coast, with patches of Major HeatRisk (corresponding to a risk for heat-related illnesses for most people without adequate cooling or hydration) for the North Bay valleys. Here are some heat safety tips: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The heat event peaks on Wednesday with temperatures in the interior expected to remain in the mid 90s to lower 100s, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected at the coast. The Heat Advisory will extend to the South Bay and the inland Central Coast on Wednesday. The Southern Salinas Valley is now included in the second Heat Advisory as confidence in heat impacts has grown. Heat impacts will continue through Thursday, especially in the interior where moderate HeatRisk continues through the day, but most people should start to see a gradual cooldown as the ridge moves towards the north and east, allowing a weak trough to impact our region. A more noticeable cooldown begins on Friday, and by the upcoming weekend, high temperatures are expected to moderate to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the inland valleys and the upper 50s to mid 60s closer to the coast. CPC outlooks continue to show a lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle part of June. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A mix of low and high clouds are spanning the Bay Area and Central Coast this evening. Terminals north of the Monterey Bay are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period, but there is a small chance of MVFR stratus development at the favored locations, particularly SFO. Otherwise the main story remains strong NW winds in the afternoon, decreasing overnight and returning Tuesday afternoon. LLWS was removed from all TAFs due to a lack of reports last night and weaker winds aloft tonight. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with strong NW winds. Winds will gradually decrease overnight. The VFR conditions are expected to hold, though SFO has a 20% chance of developing an MVFR ceiling in the early morning. OAK and SJC are less likely to be impacted by any coastal stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...After a brief improvement this afternoon, stratus is starting to return this evening and will likely lower to IFR or LIFR by early morning. The visibility may also drop, but shouldn`t be the limiting issue due to moderate surface winds. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 445 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A storm force low pressure system in the NE Pacific is centered approximately 500 NM west of British Colombia. Meanwhile the dominant feature locally is a ridge extending NE from subtropical high pressure towards the Oregon coast. The gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure over Arizona is supporting a fresh to strong NW breeze this evening. Over the next 48 hours, conditions will gradually worsen as the high pressure pushes closer to the coast, tightening the gradient. While the winds are increasing to a strong breeze on Tuesday, large NW swell from the storm force low will also arrive in the coastal waters. Conditions will gradually improve going into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 127 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for June 4th and 5th: Station June 4th June 5th Santa Rosa 98 in 1949 102 in 1926 Kentfield 101 in 1981 102 in 1926 Napa 102 in 1981 105 in 1903 Richmond 90 in 1955 86 in 1983 Livermore 105 in 1960 104 in 1926 San Francisco 92 in 1949 95 in 1883 SFO Airport 92 in 1955, 1949 89 in 1972 Redwood City 100 in 1981 97 in 2002, 1972 Half Moon Bay 71 in 1955 74 in 1958 Oakland downtown 96 in 1981 87 in 2002 San Jose 98 in 1904 100 in 1926 Salinas Airport 92 in 1949 87 in 1949 King City 102 in 1981, 1957 105 in 1926 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504-506-510-515. Heat Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ513-514-516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea