Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
963 FXUS66 KMTR 230952 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 252 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024 Patchy stratus is currently located along the Santa Cruz coastline and extending into portions of Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara counties. Stratus coverage may extend a bit farther into Monterey Bay and up the San Mateo coastline but is not expected to expand too far inland. The Fort Ord Profiler shows the top of the marine layer around 1600-1800 feet which is fairly comparable to the depth of the marine layer yesterday. Given persistence, this helps increase confidence that any stratus that develops will stay along the coastline and portions of the Monterey Bay. Overcast conditions are expected to clear out by late morning/early afternoon with some potential for scattered clouds to persist throughout the remainder of the day. Widespread stratus coverage will return fairly early in the evening throughout much of the Bay Area and Central Coast as onshore flow increases and a weak surface low pressure system approaches the coast. As broad upper level troughing continues and offshore flow weakens, temperatures will continue to cool Thursday with high temperatures on average 1 to 3 degrees cooler than those observed on Wednesday. Across the interior, temperatures will be seasonal with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s but, along the coast, below average temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s persist. Minor heat risk continues for portions of the Bay Area and Salinas Valley. Individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat should remember to stay hydrated while outdoors and to take breaks as needed. Slightly drier RH values persist inland during the day on Thursday before higher RH values and increased moisture return inland with this next weak system. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024 A weak low pressure system will move inland Friday into Saturday and bring widespread below average temperatures, increased stratus coverage, and some potential for light drizzle in coastal areas. Most inland locations will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average but some may see more significant drops with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average. High temperatures throughout the interior will be in the 60s with a few areas of elevated terrain potentially reaching the low 70s. Meanwhile on the coast, temperatures will struggle to make it out of the upper 50s and into the lower 60s Friday and Saturday. Ensemble and hi-res guidance continue to suggest light drizzle, particularly in the Monterey Bay region, is likely along the coast with non-impactful accumulations typically less than 0.1". By Monday, shortwave ridging will build over the West Coast with inland temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s and coastal temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s. If you are not a fan of the cooler weather we have been having, you are in luck! Updated CPC graphics show above average temperatures will become increasingly likely by early June. During this same time frame, long term guidance is showing upper level ridging building and, for the most part, lingering over the West Coast. Given that this scenario is still a ways out, we will have to wait and see how guidance continues to trend and how the forecast evolves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 916 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will see moments MVFR CIGs into the night, but with some breaks in between. Expect surface winds to stay breezy to gusty into the late night before reducing. Winds aloft stay strong over APC while surface winds ease, leading to LLWS concerns. Gusty winds build again into Thursday afternoon but reduce again into that night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate to breezy winds through the night. Another round of gusty westerly winds arrive Thursday afternoon with peak gusts around 28 kts. These winds reduce into the early night, but stay moderate for the rest of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO Monterey Bay Terminals...Moments of MVFR CIGs over the terminals into the night, with some breaks in between. Expect moderate westerly winds overnight with slight increases of northwest winds expected into Thursday afternoon. Winds reduce and become more westerly as MVFR CIGs arrive Thursday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 855 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 The strong and gusty winds continue over the coastal waters with gale force gusts across the outer waters and the northern inner waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves with these strong winds. The pattern changes and winds are expected to reduce into the weekend, but the outer waters look to remain breezy through the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea