115
FXUS66 KMTR 230401
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
901 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are
forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper
level trough impacts the region. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday
through the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

Not a lot of cloud cover tonight, with patchy stratus in the
Monterey Bay region and along the Big Sur coast. The rest of the
region should remain clear tonight with a cooling trend continuing
tomorrow, although temperatures in the interior remain warm. High
resolution models continue to suggest a probability for coastal
drizzle on Friday and Saturday, but as before the confidence
remains quite low. For now, no changes to the forecast.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

With the weakening of the offshore flow and the broad upper level
trough continuing to influence our area, temperatures are trending
down towards a cooler side (by 2-3 degrees lower than yesterday)
going into the evening and night hours. Minimum temperatures are
forecasted to reach between mid 40s to low 50s across the region.
Maximum temperatures for Thursday will see between high 70s to low
80s for inland areas, and high 50s to 60s along the coast. Although
temperatures will start to decrease, temperatures will still be
relatively warm. So for those sensitive to heat, be sure to hydrate
if you plan to go out!

The marine layer continues to deepen with the coastal profilers
showing up to 1,500-1,700 feet at Ft. Ord. With the deepening marine
layer and a increase in onshore flow, Thursday will see some higher
relative humidity values and increase of moist air inland. As a
result, expect another round of "May Grey" Thursday morning for the
coastal areas, especially near Monterey Bay, Salinas Valley, and
coastal areas south of San Francisco.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

With the deep marine layer and upper level trough moving south into
our area and becoming more prominent later in the week, expect a
continuation of cool down to below normal temperatures by the
weekend. Maximum temperatures for Friday into Saturday will see low
70s and range of 60s inland, with mid 50s to low 60s along the
coast. Sunday into Tuesday, a weak ridging pattern takes a bit
influence over our area, which will bring back some warmer
temperatures with interior areas seeing max temperatures in the mid
70s to low 80s, with the coast increasing up high 50s to mid 60s.
Overnight temperatures will be relatively the same through the
forecast period, with mid 40s to low 50s across the area. High
resolution ensemble models continue to hint at possible drizzle
for the weekend along the coast, with a 10-15% chance that
measurable amounts (<.01 of an inch) will occur. If precipitation
do occur, impacts will be minimal to none.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will
see moments MVFR CIGs this evening and into the night, but with
some breaks in between. Expect surface winds to stay breezy to
gusty into the late night before reducing. Winds aloft stay strong
over APC while surface winds ease, leading to LLWS concerns.
Gusty winds build again into Thursday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect gusty winds
to linger through the evening, but reduce into the night. Another
round of gusty westerly winds arrive Wednesday afternoon with
peak gusts around 28 kts. These winds reduce into the early night,
but stay moderate for the rest of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moments of MVFR this evening and into the
night, with some breaks in between. Expect moderate westerly
winds overnight with slight increases northwest winds expected
into Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 855 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

The strong and gusty winds continue over the coastal waters with
gale force gusts across the outer waters and the northern inner
waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves with
these strong winds. The pattern changes and winds are expected to
reduce into the weekend, but the outer waters look to remain
breezy through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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