032
FXUS66 KMTR 051126
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
425 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot inland, while cooler at the immediate coast today. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for inland areas today through Thursday.
Temperatures moderating towards the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

An area of low ceiling stratus and/or fog was working its way
southward over the coastal waters and may briefly reach or form
along the coastline through daybreak. Otherwise the sky is clear
over the forecast area. On microphysics satellite imagery a coastally
trapped southerly wind reversal with fog is moving north of Point
Conception, though based on recent observations and current model
output it should have trouble reaching northward today since there`s
a fair amount of surface high pressure prevailing to our northwest,
e.g. the ACV-SFO pressure gradient is moderate at 6.7 mb. Though
it`s still a good idea to closely monitor the SMX-SFO and SBA-SFO
pressure gradients.

High pressure and large scale sinking motion continues with the
apex of 500 mb heights ~ 590 decameters with the high pressure
system moving to our east later today. 850 mb temperatures are
forecast to rise a couple more degrees today nearing 24 Celsius
and will however hold nearly steady through Friday afternoon, this
is close to the max moving average on Oakland upper air long term
climatology in early June.

Surface heating after sun rise today will connect with the
aforementioned warm lower level temperatures i.e. 850 mb (and 925 mb)
levels boosting highs today mainly above to well above early June
normal high temperatures. Due to a maritime influence highs will
be coolest along the immediate coastline/beaches with 70s to a few
warmer spots not far from the beaches in the lower 80s, then
inland just a bit bayside highs will be 80 to 90 with lower 90s
just away from the SF Bay. Farthest inland away from any maritime
influence highs today will be in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

The Heat Advisory continues today for much of the Bay Area and north
Central Coast except along the immediate coastline and along the SF
Bay Shoreline.

Here are some heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The Heat Advisory continues Thursday for the same locations as
today. Then late in the week and over the weekend improving chances
of afternoon and evening onshore breezes develop, inland daytime
highs will lower back to near typical highs for this time in June,
also reducing heat risks. Weak upper level troughing arrives late
in the week and weekend, how this upper level trough then may evolve
is a low confidence forecast per divergence in model solutions for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR except patchy stratus and/or fog /LIFR-IFR/ along the immediate
coastline this morning and a few more areas of coastal stratus and/or
fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing late tonight and Thursday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 10 knots, becoming gusty to near
30 knots this afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing overnight
to near 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except patchy stratus and/or fog
/LIFR-IFR/ this morning. Light and variable winds this morning,
west to northwest 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. A mix of onshore
winds 5 to 10 knots and light and variable winds later tonight and
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Breezy to gusty northwest winds continue to cause hazardous
conditions with steep wind waves. Winds begin to reduce into the
late week as the upper level wind pattern changes. A moderate
period northwest swell will build over the waters late Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 415 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Thursday evening.

A moderate-rough NW swell will arrive today and create large
breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves. Breaking
waves will reach as high as 15 ft, especially along steep beaches.
Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling people
in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced
swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20
minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will
lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where
lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for
June 5th:

Station             June 5th

Santa Rosa         102 in 1926
Kentfield          102 in 1926
Napa               105 in 1903
Richmond            86 in 1983
Livermore          104 in 1926
San Francisco       95 in 1883
SFO Airport         89 in 1972
Redwood City        97 in 2002, 1972
Half Moon Bay       74 in 1958
Oakland downtown    87 in 2002
San Jose           100 in 1926
Salinas Airport     87 in 1949
King City          105 in 1926

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM PDT this morning through
     Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Heat Advisory until midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504-
     506-510-512>515.

     Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight PDT Thursday
     night for CAZ516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Murdock

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