Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
673 FXUS63 KOAX 312040 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 340 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will linger into tonight. If storms repeat over areas that received heavy rainfall last night, some localized flooding could occur. - Additional storms could move in by late Saturday afternoon/evening (20-40% chance) with daily chances continuing into at least Wednesday. The highest chances for strong to severe storms look to be Sunday and Tuesday. - Slightly warmer through next week with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The stalled frontal boundary remains from south central NE through northwest MO. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have gone up along this boundary. While the storms do not have large hail or gusty winds, they have however produced several funnel clouds, that is coincident with 0-3km CAPE and low level vorticity in the vicinity of the boundary, thus the non supercelltornado is actually peaking with values of 1-2 units. These have typically been weak, short lived, may extend a few hundred feet below the cloud base, and could briefly touch down. And unfortunately, this trend could continue for another hour or two late this afternoon. Elsewhere, there have been spotty, light showers. Will maintain the highest Pops tonight in the axis of the stalled frontal boundary in the 50-80% range, with precipitation gradually diminishing after midnight before ending by daybreak Saturday. Saturday during the day should be very nice with dry weather and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. There is another weak short wave that could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night, with Pops in the 20-30% range. Severe weather probabilities remain to our west Saturday night. Sunday will have 50-60% Pops during the day as weak zonal flow remains aloft. The ECMWF still has pretty robust with precip develop during the day Sunday, but the GFS is pretty dry. And then the GFS GFS has a pretty strong frontal boundary moving into the region Sunday night, which brings the next real threat for severe storms and locally heavy rains moving from west to east. And the next best chance for precipitation after that comes Tuesday. Previous models were perhaps a little slower, and now 12z models are perhaps a little faster, so there remains some uncertainty on the timing of the that weather system and the expected strength. And then Wednesday through Friday is looking pretty dry and pleasant. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Another complicated set of TAFs with precipitation chances early in the TAF period, along with spotty MVFR ceilings. Thunder chances as well at KOFK/KLNK. Then transitioning to a period of MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings overnight, then back to VFR by 01/14-15z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...DeWald