861
FXUS63 KOAX 271615
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1115 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today with northwest winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast from
  Thursday through the weekend. Severe weather potential
  remains uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.Today:

A vigorous shortwave trough over the Dakotas early this morning
will track east-southeast into MN and IA today. As of 3 AM, widely
scattered showers are being observed ahead of that feature from
near the SD-NE into western MN. And, while an isolated shower
or two is possible this morning, latest CAM guidance suggests
that the majority of any shower and thunderstorm development
will remain to the north and east of the area today. Otherwise,
model soundings depict the development of a deeply mixed
boundary layer by afternoon; supportive of downward momentum
transfer of stronger winds aloft with northwest winds gusting to
30-35 mph. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to around
80.


.Tuesday and Wednesday:

Another shortwave trough will pass to the east of the area
Tuesday ahead of a midlevel ridge which will overspread the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. Precipitation chances
appear negligible with highs in the 70s to around 80.


.Thursday and Thursday night:

The 00z global deterministic models indicate a prominent
midlevel trough emerging from the Canadian and northern Rockies
with an associated vorticity lobe progressing through the base
of that feature into the northern Plains. At the same time,
there is some model signal for a weaker, lower-latitude
disturbance advancing east through the central Plains. At the
surface, a cold front initially over the northern High Plains
Thursday morning will slowly progress east with showers and
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and nighttime
hours along and ahead of that boundary. Current indications are
that the greatest air mass destabilization and associated
severe weather threat will remain to the west of our area. This
forecast update will indicate PoPs increasing to 40-70% Thursday
with showers and thunderstorms likely (50-80% chance) Thursday
night.

Highs are expected to be in the 70s.


Friday through the weekend:

On Friday into Saturday, the global deterministic models begin
to diverge on the evolution of the large-scale pattern. The
ECMWF and Canadian systems move a low-amplitude disturbance
through the northern Plains, whereas the GFS indicates a more
substantial shortwave trough moving into the northern and
central Plains Saturday and Saturday night; suggestive of a
greater severe weather threat. In contrast, the EPS/GEFS/CMCE
ensemble mean 500-mb height fields depict a more consistent
signal of broad troughing across the northern Plains in the
Friday-Saturday time frame. By Sunday, all model solutions
depict a deamplifying midlevel pattern across the northern and
central Plains.

The forecast will indicate a continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Severe weather potential
remains uncertain due to the varying model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will hold through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will remain out of the northwest, gusting to
25 kt this afternoon, dropping to around 5 kt this evening
through the overnight hours. Winds will increase again Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...McCoy