Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FNUS73 KOAX 171302
FWSOAX
Spot Forecast for Holsapple Prairie Rx Burn Unit...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
802 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Expect a warm, sunny day with temperature at ignition in the mid
70s and a high around 85 degrees. Winds will be out of the south-
southwest this morning but become more due south early this
afternoon, with sustained speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to around
25 mph. RH at ignition should be in the mid 40s and fall to around
28-32 percent this afternoon. All that said, the location is
right on the edge of some stronger winds/mixing, so just a small
deviation in the weather pattern could lead to gusts of 30-35 mph,
temperature approaching 90 degrees, and RH falling into the mid
20s (maybe a 30-40% chance of this happening).
Saturday will be a few degrees cooler with slightly weaker
northwest winds (wind shift occurs Saturday morning), but similar
or slightly lower RH values.
Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 35 mph
Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 24 percent
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 9 mph with gusts to around 15
mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 11 to 15 mph with gusts to around
25 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to around
20 mph.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (112700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19 4 2 6 2 6 4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74 77 80 83 84 84 85
RH..............51 45 39 36 33 33 32
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..9 11 11 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.17 18 19 19 20 20 20
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.7 8 8 9 9 9 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 13 14 14 15 15 15
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S
Surface wnd spd.11 14 14 15 15 15 15
Surface wnd gst.21 22 24 24 25 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.5 3.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.1
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.17 20 21 23 24 25 25
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....6 6 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100029 43 59 84 106 113 88
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent) then becoming partly
cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 14
mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around
24 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 19
mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (49500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........2 4 3 1 3 5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............84 79 70 68 65 63
RH..............33 41 53 57 63 70
20 ft wind......S 11 S 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9
20 ft wind gust.19 18 18 18 17 16
Eye level wind..S 8 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 7 S 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.14 13 14 13 13 12
Surface wind....S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 11 S 11
Surface wnd gst.24 22 23 22 21 20
Mix hgt (ft)....3100 400 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..S 25 S 20 S 21 S 21 S 20 S 20
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....5 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/100050 6 8 7 8 8
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 6 mph with gusts to
around 12 mph shifting to the northwest 6 to 8
mph with gusts to around 13 mph in the
afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).South winds around 10 mph with gusts to around
20 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 14 mph
with gusts to around 22 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 9 mph with gusts to around
16 mph shifting to the northwest 9 to 12 mph
with gusts to around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 18 mph shifting to the west around
20 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
the northwest late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (75900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........27 54 33 23 14 6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............61 64 72 76 78 79
RH..............78 75 57 46 37 31
20 ft wind......S 8 SW 8 W 9 NW 11 NW 11 NW 9
20 ft wind gust.16 14 16 18 18 17
Eye level wind..S 6 SW 6 W 7 NW 8 NW 8 NW 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 11 12 13 13 13
Surface wind....S 10 SW 10 W 11 NW 14 NW 14 NW 11
Surface wnd gst.20 18 20 22 22 21
Mix hgt (ft)....400 600 2700 3300 4000 4400
Transport wind..S 18 S 18 NW 20 NW 22 N 21 N 17
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....6 5 5 5 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10004 17 46 68 76 65
$$
Forecaster...CA
Requested by...Jeff Seago
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414499.0/OAX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeffrey.seago@dnr.iowa.gov