765
FXUS64 KOHX 021716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A much less active day with little in the way of convection noted.
Just a few isolated showers across our Plateau but that activity
should continue to decrease. This is all due to the flattening of
the shortwave overnight. In fact, we will see some upcoming ridging
into tonight and Monday. For tonight though, could see some fog
across our Plateau especially. Current tover values are around -3F
with neutral dewpoint trends expected from 00Z through 12Z. Will
double check the builder to see if there is any fog input.

The pattern will still remain mildly unsettled as another shortwave
moves in for Monday night and Tuesday. Instability will ramp up
pretty good across western TN on Tuesday afternoon. Furthermore 850
mb mags are around 30 Kts. There is a marginal generally west of the
MS river. I`d be surprised if thats not expanded eastward with time.
The associated surface boundary is virtually absent though so the
synoptic display is non-supportive. Otherwise, rainfall totals
though Tuesday night look like an inch far west to a half inch east.

For the short term temps, it will be on the warm side for early
June. That previously mentioned upper ridging could send our highs
into the upper 80s to near 90F on Monday and possibly Tuesday as
well. Overnight lows will be summer like with 65F to 70F for most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

In the extended forecast, a more potent and better stacked system is
indicated for Wednesday. Looks like a sure fire marginal but nothing
out of spc yet. Following the mid week system, will cool off a
touch. It certainly looks calmer as some troughing digs along the
Atlantic coast. We could see some backside energy with a few
showers at times. However, the nbm only references 20 pops at
best. Total qpf amounts for the extended period only chime in at
around 1 inch across our Plateau(for the Wednesday activity
primarily), to just a quarter of an inch west.

For the extended temps, quite warm and muggy initially. We actually
see a secondary boundary push through on Thursday with some cooler
air behind it. Our highs will drop down to near 80F by next weekend.
Lows will drop to near 60F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

With no lightning noted, mentioned only periodic prevailing shwrs
SRB/CSV thru 02/14Z with IFR/MVFR ceilings. Otherwise VCSH SRB
thru 02/22Z and CSV 03/00Z. Continued with VCSH CKV/BNA/MQY thru
02/16Z as some vcnty shwrs potentially. Mixture of IFR/MVFR
ceilings expected with ceiling erosion CKV/BNA/MQY by 02/18Z &
SRB/CSV no later than 03/00Z. Slow veering from SW to NW/N thru
03/00. Did address light backing winds at terminals around 03/06Z.
MVFR fog formation possible SRB/CSV 03/10Z-03/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  88  69  88 /   0  10  20  40
Clarksville    63  87  68  85 /   0  10  20  50
Crossville     59  81  61  82 /  20  10  10  30
Columbia       63  87  68  87 /  10  10  20  50
Cookeville     62  82  64  83 /  10  10  10  30
Jamestown      60  81  62  83 /  20  10  10  30
Lawrenceburg   64  86  67  86 /  10  10  20  50
Murfreesboro   63  88  66  88 /  10  10  20  40
Waverly        64  87  68  86 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....JB Wright