Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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081 FXUS61 KOKX 310456 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1256 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will pass through overnight. High pressure will then build toward the area tonight into Friday, and remain in control through Saturday. A weak disturbance will move across late Sunday into Sunday night, followed by another from late Tuesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A weak low pressure trough lies over the area as of midnight. Winds behind the trough have shifted N-NW across S CT and from NYC north/west, and should become N 10-15 mph with a few gusts up to 20 mph late along the coast and in the metro area, and 5-10 kt farther inland. Satellite/radar also show and band of BKN-OVC skies with a few light sprinkles from the Hudson Valley down into NE NJ. Will have 20 PoP for these in those areas and in parts of NYC. With CAA kicking in overnight on the NW-N flow, temps should fall to the upper 50s in NYC, lower/mid 50s elsewhere in the metro area and along the coast, and to 45-50 inland and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. Friday will be bit warmer compared to Thursday with temperatures closer to average. It will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid/upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The upper ridge will begin shifting overhead Friday night and especially on Saturday before beginning to flatten Saturday night. High pressure will be in control at the surface with its core settling over the Middle Atlantic by Saturday. Surface ridging should remain over the area into Saturday night. Dry conditions will continue during this time period with mostly clear skies. There may be a slight increase in clouds Saturday night as the ridge flattens and a shortwave approaches from the west. Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees above normal, in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Lows both Friday night will be from the upper 40s inland to the 50s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night will be milder, in the upper 50s/lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the NBM. Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too far offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft flattens in the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots Sunday afternoon and night for western and far southern portions of the forecast area. High pressure remains in control Monday into Tuesday. Expect dry conditions on Monday. It will probably remain dry on Tuesday, however will continue to carry some slight chance/chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and night. There is a chance that a surface trough and shortwave aloft could trigger a shower or two. Tuesday will remain more dry than wet. The pattern doesn`t change all that much for Wednesday, but models seem to agree that the ridging shifts more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs therefore for Wednesday as well. A cold front slowly approaches from the west on Thursday with chance PoP. NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak sfc trough will pass south overnight. High pressure will then gradually build in from the west through the period. VFR conditions are expected. Winds will shift to the NW-N overnight into the AM push, and may pick up to around or just over 10 kt with a few gusts 15-18 kt at the metro terminals. Wind then diminish to 10 kt or less and shift more to the WNW by late afternoon. A true sea breeze is not expected, but some coastal terminals may shift more toward the W or WSW from 18Z-21Z Friday (KJFK, KISP, KBDR, KGON). ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night through Saturday night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Showers with MVFR cond possible at times mainly in the evening. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond possible in afternoon/early evening showers or tstms, mainly NW of the NYC metro terminals. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The rip current risk is moderate for the Suffolk beaches this afternoon, where combo of SE-S long period swells and offshore flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. The rip current risk remains low for the Nassau and NYC ocean beaches. There is a low rip current risk Friday and Saturday and supported by RCMOS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/BG/DS NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JP MARINE...BC/BG/DS HYDROLOGY...BC/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...