830
FXUS61 KOKX 300611
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
211 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and area of low pressure pass through overnight
with a surface trough lingering nearby on Thursday. High
pressure builds in Friday and Saturday then slowly weakens
beginning on Sunday into the start of next week. A couple of
weak disturbances move around the western side of the high
Sunday night, and late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough swinging into the Northeast pivots a shortwave and
associated frontal system through the region overnight.

Showers continue through the overnight hours, but thunder is not
expected for the most part. Just a chance over far eastern
zones at this point where CAPEs still range up to 500 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Wet start to Thursday, particularly east of the Hudson, with
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms lingering as the
shortwave axis moves through and a surface trough hangs back
through the region. Along with the cyclonic flow, the cold pool
overhead will likely maintain a low chance of a few pop up
showers anywhere locally into the afternoon.

Northerly flow behind the system will usher in a bit cooler
air, and with the cloud cover, should keep temperatures limited
into the low to mid 70s for most during the afternoon.
Conditions dry out entirely Thursday night as surface high
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, setting up overnight lows
into the 40s in the coldest locales with a light northerly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast, as generally dry
weather dominates with high pressure in control. Daytime
temperatures will be slightly above seasonal normals going into
the beginning of meteorological summer June 1, then modify
Sunday into the middle of next week as a return flow sets up.
Overnight lows will be near normal Friday night and Saturday
night, and then be a few degrees warmer Sunday night through
Tuesday night.

Strong upper ridging builds into the east coast Friday through
Saturday, then moves into the western Atlantic Sunday and
weakens. Meanwhile weak shortwaves will be approaching late
Sunday with another late Tuesday into Wednesday. Any showers and
thunderstorms with the waves will be scattered, and mainly
across the western and northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure passes through during the early morning hours,
followed by a post-frontal trough lingering through the day
today. High pressure builds in tonight.

SHRA probably ending by 12z for the city and LoHud terminals,
then a couple of hours thereafter farther east. Mainly VFR for
the city terminals and KSWF, but tempo MVFR anticipated for a
few hours before the showers end. MVFR elsewhere during the
rain, even some tempo IFR anticipated for KGON, then improving
to VFR this afternoon. Can`t rule out a shower this afternoon
and early evening, however this would only bring a brief
reduction in VSBY if it were to occur.

NNW-N winds increasing to 10-15kt during the morning push with
gusts 16-20kt mainly late this morning into early afternoon.
Winds then back slightly tonight as they diminish below 10kt.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Prevailing MVFR possible from approx 08-11z, but also a chance
that forecast tempo MVFR does not occur during this period.
Start and end time of gusts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Tonight: VFR.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions persist through Sunday. An increasing SW
flow during the day Sunday may allow ocean seas east of Moriches
Inlet to build to near 5 feet Sunday night. Then with a weakening
flow seas fall below 5 feet Monday. Otherwise, winds and seas across
the forecast waters remain below advisory into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall amounts of up to 0.75 inches possible for CT
and LI, and up to a quarter inch elsewhere. No hydrologic
impacts expected with this.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for rip current development at the ocean beaches
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC