413
FXUS61 KOKX 011422
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Appalachians and the Mid
Atlantic this afternoon shifts offshore Sunday. A disturbance
approaches late Sunday and passes nearby into early Monday. High
pressure then builds across the region from Southeast Canada
through Tuesday night. The high moves out in to the Atlantic for
the latter half of the week. A frontal system approaches from
the west towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with deep layer ridging continuing to
build across the area. Latest analysis still indicates that
there is a enough of a synoptic gradient present and through
the early afternoon to delay sea breeze onset. Previous
discussion follows.

A pleasant start to the month of June and meteorological summer
across the local Tri- State with surface high pressure nearby
and deep layer ridging settling in.

A light northwest flow around the top of the high gradually backs
west through the day as the high shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Deep mixing up to 750 mb should allow much of the region away from
the immediate shoreline to achieve lower 80s by lunchtime, or 5 to
10 degrees above normal for early June. Only caveat is the potential
sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon hours, dropping temps
back into the 70s for coastal locales. Subsidence should mitigate
most cloud cover, absent what little cu can develop. The minimal
moisture with surface dew points in the 40s and low 50s will only
add to the comfort of the air mass, sparing for now the higher
humidity that summer often brings.

Tonight, a shearing shortwave lifting northeast across the Midwest
will attempt to shunt the ridging in place locally. This will
introduce high clouds overnight ahead of the shortwave, but
conditions remain dry as temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s
once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure sits offshore on Sunday, while the ridging aloft
flattens with the approach of the weakening shortwave. High clouds
gradually thicken and lower through the day, eventually bringing the
chance for a few rain showers by the evening and overnight hours.
Coverage appears limited however with weak forcing and moisture to
work with. A lack of instability should preclude most thunderstorm
activity, but a rogue rumble of thunder can`t be entirely ruled out.

Still some range in the solutions offered by global guidance, with
the GEFS farther north with the disturbance than the GEPS or ENS
on the 00z runs. It`s possible portions of the region, especially
into southern Connecticut, remain entirely dry should the southern
solutions verify, but regardless, overall QPF is expected to be
light.

The weak surface feature passes near of just south of the region
early Monday. Surface high pressure then begins to return from
the north, though the lingering frontal boundary to the south
could instigate a spotty shower into the afternoon. Temperatures
during the day range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions
prevail Monday night with temperate lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid levels exhibit a transition from weak ridging around midweek to
a large approaching cutoff mid level low Thursday into the end of
the week. This general mid level pattern shift is conveyed by
the grand ensemble within the 12z May 31st LREF.

Mid level ridging appears to be relatively strongest Tuesday through
Wednesday while at the surface, high pressure builds in locally from
the north. The origin for the high pressure is in the Canadian
Maritimes. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

For Thursday into the end of the week, a warm front approaches
Thursday and eventually moves across by early Friday. A cold front
then follows for Friday into Friday night. Surface trough pattern
remains for the end of the week and towards the weekend. Weather
pattern appears to be turning more unsettled and potentially
more showery.

The airmass will become more moist with the forecast also having
more chances of rain, especially from Wednesday night onward when
POPs of at least 25 percent are present within the forecast
region for at least a part of the region. Overall, the winds
will have more onshore component as well, helping to eventually
raise the dewpoints.

There could be a few thunderstorms embedded within the showers but
probabilities for this are just slight, mainly in the timeframe of
Thursday through Friday.

Temperature do not appear to deviate too significantly from
climatological normals during this long term forecast period.
Forecast daytime highs mainly in the 70s to near 80. Forecast lows
at night into early morning mainly between 55 and 65.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues to move into the region during the TAF
period, with its center south of the area late today into tonight.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind speeds are
expected to be mainly near or less than 10 kts much of the TAF
period. Wind direction will initially be mainly NW early today
with winds becoming more W-SW with some coastal terminals
expected to a sea breeze for afternoon into early evening.
Occasional gusts upwards of 20 kt are possible for some
terminals today.

There is uncertainty with the timing of the sea breeze, making for a
lower confidence wind direction forecast today. KJFK, KLGA, KISP and
KGON have highest chances of getting sea breezes. KBDR, KHPN,
KEWR and KTEB have relatively lower chances of getting sea
breezes.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction this afternoon depending on
the timing of the sea breeze. Sea breeze arrival time could be off
by 1 to 2 hours. Occasional gusts upwards of 20 kt possible
today.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday - Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR or
lower possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible for the day into night in
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late next week,
with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the
water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly
if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...