735
FXUS61 KOKX 290246
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls just offshore overnight, followed by a
second front approaching Wednesday, and moving through into
Wednesday night. A weak surface trough moves east of the region
Thursday. High pressure builds in later Thursday through
Saturday night. A weakening low passes slowly to the west and
north Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Mid level trough continues to advance east into the region and
helps scoot a weak cold front farther offshore overnight.

Any convective and shower activity has dissipated to the west
and north during the late evening. Thus, a quiet and comfortable
night for late spring with dew point readings primarily in the
50s. Dry and mild conditions overnight as temperatures only
fall back into the middle 50s to lower 60s overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Trough axis shifts over the Northeast on Wednesday as an
embedded shortwave swings through. The cold pool aloft, cyclonic
flow, and advancing surface boundary should allow showers to
develop into the Lower Hudson Valley by early afternoon, with
the activity then spreading east across the rest of the region
mid to late afternoon.

Despite ample sunshine and a well-mixed BL, conditions appear
only marginal for thunderstorm development, with relatively
light unidirectional shear, modest CAPE under 1000 J/kg, and
surface dew points in the 50s. Still, a few thunderstorms may
embed in this activity and advance east into the evening hours.
SPC continues to outline the region in a general thunder, which
seems reasonable given the above.WEDNES

The front moves through in the evening, and a surface trough
lingers as a trailing weak wave of low pressure passes just
offshore overnight, keeping a chance for showers into Thursday
morning, especially along the coast. QPF from this system will
be light outside any heavier convective elements, generally
under a quarter inch.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday, climbing
into the mid to upper 70s for most during the afternoon, or about
normal for late May. A general light flow from the west veers
more northerly overnight behind the fropa helping to advect drier
air into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough from southeastern Canada into the mid
Atlantic states will be moving into the western Atlantic during
Thursday as a high amplitude ridge builds east from the upper
midwest and Great Lakes region. The ridge moves into the western
Atlantic Sunday with the flow becoming zonal. A weak, low
amplitude shortwave will be moving into the ridge and there will
be mainly slight chances of precipitation late Sunday night
into Tuesday, mainly inland, where there is better instability
and surface convergence.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonal normals
Thursday into Saturday, with a slight warmup Sunday into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak cold fronts pivot through overnight and into Wednesday.

VFR through Wednesday morning, with sub VFR chances increasing
Wednesday afternoon and evening. A chance at seeing scattered
showers and TSRA for the afternoon after 20Z. For now thunder
handled in the TAFs with PROB30 groups.

Winds generally light overnight, and down around 5 kt at many
outlying terminals. NW/W winds around 7-10 kt continue Wednesday
with coastal terminals (KJFK, KISP, KBDR, KGON) becoming more SW to
S due to seabreeze influence in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Periods of MVFR or lower with chance of showers and
tstms, mainly during the evening.

Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR with any rain showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly flow will continue overnight and lighten. This west
wind veers more northerly by Wednesday night behind a frontal
passage, but winds and seas remain light.

Sub-advisory conditions persist Thursday through the weekend
with a light flow, generally 10 kt or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk early Wednesday morning at the
Southeast Suffolk ocean beaches, with 3 foot ocean seas and a S to
SE swell, with a low risk at the other ocean facing beaches.
Thursday there is a low rip current risk at the ocean facing
beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...