763
FXUS61 KOKX 290632
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls just offshore overnight, followed by a
second front approaching Wednesday, and moving through into
Wednesday night. A weak surface trough moves east of the region
Thursday. High pressure builds in later Thursday through
Saturday night. A weakening low passes slowly to the west and
north Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid level trough continues to advance east into the region and
helps scoot a weak cold front farther offshore overnight.

A quiet and comfortable night in progress for late spring with
dewpoints primarily in the 50s. Temperatures should only fall
back into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Trough axis shifts over the Northeast on Wednesday as an
embedded shortwave swings through. The cold pool aloft,
cyclonic flow, and advancing surface boundary should allow
showers to develop into the Lower Hudson Valley by early
afternoon, with the activity then spreading east across the rest
of the region mid to late afternoon.

Despite ample sunshine and a well-mixed BL, conditions appear
only marginal for thunderstorm development, with relatively
light unidirectional shear, modest CAPE under 1000 J/kg, and
surface dew points in the 50s. Still, a few thunderstorms may
embed in this activity and advance east into the evening hours.
SPC continues to outline the region in a general thunder, which
seems reasonable given the above.

The front moves through in the evening, and a surface trough
lingers as a trailing weak wave of low pressure passes just
offshore overnight, keeping a chance for showers into Thursday
morning, especially along the coast. QPF from this system will
be light outside any heavier convective elements, generally
under a quarter inch.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday,
climbing into the mid/upper 70s for most during the afternoon,
which is about normal for late May. A general light flow from
the west veers more northerly overnight behind the fropa
helping to advect drier air into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough from southeastern Canada into the mid
Atlantic states will be moving into the western Atlantic
during Thursday as a high amplitude ridge builds east from the
upper midwest and Great Lakes region. The ridge moves into the
western Atlantic Sunday with the flow becoming zonal. A weak,
low amplitude shortwave will be moving into the ridge and there
will be mainly slight chances of precipitation late Sunday night
into Tuesday, mainly inland, where there is better instability
and surface convergence.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonal normals
Thursday into Saturday, with a slight warmup Sunday into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
One weak frontal boundary will move east of the area overnight.
Another will approach Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Sub VFR chances should increase going into this afternoon and
evening. Sct showers and possible tstms could begin perhaps as
early as 16Z-18Z KSWF, 18Z-20Z KEWR/KTEB/KHPN, 20Z
KLGA/KJFK/KBDR, 22Z KISP and by Wed night at KGON. These have
been handled with PROB30 for MVFR cond, but IFR vsby may be
possible in heavier cells.

Mostly light W-NW flow overnight should veer more to the NNW by
daybreak as one front moves farther to the east. Coastal sea
breezes develop in the afternoon at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON, and
could reach KLGA by 22Z and KEWR/KTEB by 00Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: Periods of MVFR cond with chance of showers.

Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible, mainly in
the morning and mainly E of the NYC metros.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly flow will continue overnight and lighten. This west
wind veers more northerly by Wednesday night behind a frontal
passage, but winds and seas remain light.

Sub-advisory conditions persist Thursday through the weekend
with a light flow, generally 10 kt or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk early Wednesday morning at
the Southeast Suffolk ocean beaches, with 3 foot ocean seas
and a S-SE swell, with a low risk at the other ocean facing
beaches.

There is a low rip current risk on Thursday at the ocean
beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...